Ben Johnson Has Picked His Bears Quarterback for the Jets and Will Not Say Whether It Is Keenum or Bagent
By Verdexed NFL Desk
The Chicago Bears know who will start at quarterback against the New York Jets on Sunday. They just are not telling anyone. Head coach Ben Johnson said this week that the "direction" for Week 4 has already been made, while declining to name either Case Keenum, who led a 27-7 Monday night rout of the Philadelphia Eagles, or Tyson Bagent, who has cleared the concussion protocol and is back at practice.
Caleb Williams, meanwhile, remained a non-participant Thursday with the Grade 2 hamstring strain he suffered in Week 2 against Minnesota. The Bears call him week to week, and reporting on the injury has pointed to a three-to-four-week recovery window. He is not a factor for Sunday.
For fantasy managers with Bears pass catchers, and for bettors weighing a line that has moved sharply, the identity of the quarterback matters less than the question underneath it: can this offense keep functioning without its starter?
Where things stand
Johnson has been consistent on one point. If Bagent gets a full week of practice, he is the expected starter. Bagent suffered a concussion in Week 2 and did not clear the league's protocol until Sunday, one day before the Eagles game, which is why Keenum got the call on Monday night.
Keenum made the most of it. The 38-year-old, who had not started a regular-season game in more than 1,000 days, completed 24 of 34 passes for 247 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions, and added a rushing score. He hit Luther Burden III on a shovel pass for one touchdown and found Kalif Raymond for a 41-yard strike in the third quarter, spreading the ball to Rome Odunze and second-year tight end Colston Loveland as well.
Keeping the decision quiet has a clear strategic purpose. The Jets have to prepare for two quarterbacks with different skill sets: Keenum, the veteran pocket passer who just dissected Philadelphia, and Bagent, who knows Johnson's system and offers a bit more mobility.
The quarterback picture at a glance
Here is how Chicago's room looks entering Week 4, based on team statements and practice reports.
| Quarterback | Status | Recent context |
|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | Week to week | Grade 2 hamstring, no practice Thursday |
| Tyson Bagent | Cleared protocol | Concussion in Week 2, back at practice |
| Case Keenum | Healthy | 24/34, 247 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT vs. PHI |
Fantasy fallout
Rome Odunze is the Bears receiver to start regardless of the quarterback. He is the most established target in the offense, and Keenum's willingness to push the ball downfield on Monday is encouraging. Treat him as a WR2 with a slightly lower floor than he had with Williams.
Luther Burden III is the riser. Johnson schemed touches for him near the goal line on Monday, and that kind of designed usage tends to survive quarterback changes. He is a flex option in deeper leagues and a worthwhile bench stash in standard formats.
Colston Loveland is a streaming tight end. Backup quarterbacks lean on tight ends over the middle, and the matchup against a Jets defense dealing with its own problems gives him a reasonable floor.
D'Andre Swift may be the safest Bear of all. With a backup at quarterback, Johnson is likely to keep the offense balanced, and Swift's role as the lead back should hold. Start him as an RB2.
Kalif Raymond delivered the 41-yard touchdown but is a boom-or-bust deep threat. Do not chase that score on waivers.
Keenum and Bagent are superflex-only options. Neither should be in a one-quarterback lineup.
The Jets side
New York arrives with its own backfield shuffle. Breece Hall is week to week with a quad injury, which hands the backfield to Braelon Allen, who took every backup touch when Hall went down. Allen is a volume-based RB2 this week, a role built on carries rather than receptions.
The Jets defense has been forced into a reactive posture through three weeks, and it now has to prepare for a quarterback it may not face. That is a small but real edge for Chicago.
Betting angle
The market has moved hard on this game. Reports indicate the Bears opened as much larger favorites before Williams' injury and have settled at roughly a field goal and a hook, with a total in the low 40s. That movement reflects how much books discount backup quarterbacks, and Keenum's Monday performance has done little to restore the opening number.
The low total makes sense given both teams' situations: a backup quarterback on one side and a backup running back on the other. If Bagent is named the starter late in the week, expect little line movement, since the market appears to be pricing the two backups similarly.
The Verdexed model take
Verdexed's model already accounts for the Williams injury in its Week 4 numbers, and its view on Bears-Jets is in the weekly picks piece at /blog/nfl-week-4-picks-2026 and on the NFL predictions page. Bettors should treat the official starter announcement as a minor input: the larger adjustment came when Williams went down.
What's next
The Bears will release their final injury report Friday, and Bagent's practice participation is the tell. A full week of work would point to him under Johnson's own stated standard. Either way, the decision does not change the core fantasy approach: start Odunze and Swift, consider Loveland and Burden in deeper leagues, and keep Williams stashed on your bench or in an IR slot with a return likely in mid-to-late October.