Austin Riley and Michael King Put the Phillies and Cubs on the Brink in the NL Wild Card
By Verdexed MLB Desk
The National League Wild Card round opened with two home wins and one late swing. Austin Riley hit a go-ahead, three-run homer off Phillies closer Jhoan Duran in the eighth inning to give Atlanta a 5-3 win in Game 1 at Truist Park. In San Diego, Michael King took a no-hitter into the seventh inning and the Padres crushed the Cubs 8-0. Philadelphia and Chicago both face elimination on Wednesday.
Game 2 in Atlanta starts at 2 p.m. ET with Cristopher Sánchez against Tyler Mahle. The Cubs turn to Kevin Gausman against the Padres' Nick Pivetta at 10 p.m. ET.
Braves 5, Phillies 3
Chris Sale gave Atlanta exactly what it needed. He struck out nine over 6.1 innings, the longest postseason start of his career, after the Phillies scored in the first inning on an Alec Bohm double that drove in Kyle Schwarber. Sale settled in from there, but Philadelphia took a 3-2 lead in the seventh on a two-run triple by J.T. Realmuto.
Then Riley turned the game around. With two runners on in the eighth, he drove a 99 mph fastball from Duran 385 feet over the wall in right-center. It was a redemptive swing for Riley, and it flipped a game the Phillies looked like they were going to steal.
Game 2: Cristopher Sánchez vs. Tyler Mahle
On paper, this is the Phillies' best chance to extend the series. Sánchez went 18-7 with a 2.91 ERA and is one of the most reliable starters in the National League. He gets a lot of ground balls, and he limits hard contact, which is the profile that works in a day game with the season on the line.
Mahle went 7-10 with a 3.99 ERA. He has been a solid mid-rotation starter, but he is a clear step down from Sánchez, and Atlanta will likely use its bullpen early if Philadelphia puts runners on.
Betting angle: with Sánchez on the mound, the Phillies have the clearer starting pitching edge, an unusual position for a team down 0-1 on the road. The question is Duran. Philadelphia's closer gave up the decisive homer on Tuesday, and how the Phillies manage the late innings in Game 2 is the biggest factor in whether they force a Game 3.
Padres 8, Cubs 0
San Diego sent a message on the first pitch. Fernando Tatis Jr. hit a leadoff homer off Matthew Boyd, the first leadoff homer in Padres postseason history. Manny Machado followed with a homer later in the first and added an RBI double in the third. Xander Bogaerts homered off Boyd, and Jackson Merrill added a two-run single.
King was even better. He struck out Pete Crow-Armstrong, the probable NL MVP, on three pitches to start the game and did not allow a hit until the seventh inning. He finished with eight strikeouts over seven scoreless innings against the highest-scoring offense in the majors. It was the largest shutout win in Padres postseason history.
Game 2: Kevin Gausman vs. Nick Pivetta
The Cubs are handing the ball to Gausman, a veteran with postseason experience, to keep their season alive. Pivetta starts for the Padres after missing nearly five months of the season with an elbow injury. That is the biggest uncertainty in the game. Pivetta has the stuff to dominate, but the Padres will likely have a short leash and a bullpen plan ready.
Betting angle: the Padres will likely be favored at home, but Gausman is the more stretched-out starter. Chicago's offense led the majors in scoring during the season, and one quiet night against King does not change that. If Pivetta struggles early, Chicago has the lineup to make it a long night for San Diego's bullpen. The first-five-innings market on the Cubs is worth a look for bettors who think the offense bounces back.
Fantasy and DFS notes
For single-game and short-slate DFS, Sánchez is the strongest pitching play on Wednesday's NL slate. His strikeout floor and ground-ball profile make him a safe anchor. In the late game, Gausman has a better projected workload than Pivetta, whose innings are uncertain after his long layoff.
On the hitting side, Riley is the hot bat in Atlanta. Tatis, Machado and Merrill are the Padres to target if you expect San Diego to finish the sweep. The Cubs are the contrarian stack: they were shut out in Game 1, which will keep ownership down, and they face a pitcher coming off an extended injury absence.
What the Division Series picture looks like
The winners move on to face the NL's top two seeds, who have been resting since the regular season ended. A sweep on Wednesday would give Atlanta and San Diego an extra day to reset their rotations. That matters more for the Padres, who used King in Game 1 and would want him ready early in the next round.
For the Phillies, forcing a Game 3 is only part of the challenge. Winning Game 2 would require using Sánchez, which leaves them without their ace for the start of the Division Series. That is the trade-off for any Wild Card team, and it is why getting through this round quickly is so valuable.
What it means
Atlanta and San Diego are one win from the Division Series. The Phillies have the pitching edge in Game 2 and a real chance to force a deciding game, while the Cubs need their offense to show up against Pivetta.
Verdexed's model posts its pick for every postseason game on the daily MLB picks page. Wednesday's card is at /blog/mlb-picks-2026-09-30, and the full board is on the MLB predictions page.