The Model Cards
Saturday, November 14, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NBA picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 12:18 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NBA picks to win4 games, most likely winner first
CHI@
MIN
Pick MIN85% to winat -930market 87%
DEN@
NO
Pick DEN82% to winat -597market 82%
DET@
MIA
Pick DET62% to winat -191market 63%
BKN@
MEM
Pick MEM61% to winat -167market 60%
Games ticketall 4 picks to win
MIN + DEN + DET + MEM
+215
combined odds
26.7%
chance it all hits
-15.8%
EV per $1
Each leg is the team most likely to win at the line locked at its game's start; the ticket multiplies those chances, so it is a long shot by design.
Props ticket5 overs
Nikola Jokic o22.5 points + Cooper Flagg o22.5 points + Cade Cunningham o25.5 points + LaMelo Ball o28.5 points + Jamal Murray o25.5 points
+603
fair odds
14.2%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Best-of-both ticket3 picks + 3 props
MIN + DEN + DET + Nikola Jokic o22.5 + Cooper Flagg o22.5 + Cade Cunningham o25.5
+497
combined odds
14.4%
chance it all hits
-14.2%
EV per $1
The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Nikola JokicDEN · C
Over 22.5 points · model 70% · projects 26.9
LaMelo BallMIN · G
Over 28.5 points · model 66% · projects 32.9
Cade CunninghamDET · G
Over 25.5 points · model 67% · projects 29.8
Cooper FlaggDAL · F
Over 22.5 points · model 70% · projects 26.9
Jamal MurrayDEN · G
Over 25.5 points · model 66% · projects 29.4
Changes before puck drop
- 12:18 PM ET: DEN 81.5% to 82.1%; MEM 64.0% to 61.4%
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.