The Model Cards
Tuesday, November 10, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NBA picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 12:16 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NBA picks to win4 games, most likely winner first
MIL@
NY
Pick NY87% to winat -1040market 88%
MIA@
UTAH
Pick MIA74% to winat -359market 75%
ORL@
SAC
Pick ORL66% to winat -229market 67%
LAC@
PHX
Pick PHX60% to winat -167market 60%
Games ticketall 4 picks to win
NY + MIA + ORL + PHX
+222
combined odds
25.9%
chance it all hits
-16.7%
EV per $1
Each leg is the team most likely to win at the line locked at its game's start; the ticket multiplies those chances, so it is a long shot by design.
Props ticket5 overs
Jalen Brunson o24.5 points + Giannis Antetokounmpo o23.5 points + Shai Gilgeous-Alexander o32.5 points + Franz Wagner o24.5 points + Anthony Black o17.5 points
+664
fair odds
13.1%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Best-of-both ticket3 picks + 3 props
NY + MIA + ORL + Jalen Brunson o24.5 + Giannis Antetokounmpo o23.5 + Shai Gilgeous-Alexander o32.5
+566
combined odds
13.0%
chance it all hits
-13.7%
EV per $1
The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Franz WagnerORL · F
Over 24.5 points · model 66% · projects 28.3
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
Over 32.5 points · model 66% · projects 37.7
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA · F
Over 23.5 points · model 67% · projects 27.3
Jalen BrunsonNY · G
Over 24.5 points · model 68% · projects 28.9
Anthony BlackORL · G
Over 17.5 points · model 66% · projects 20.2
Changes before puck drop
- 12:16 PM ET: MIA 76.0% to 74.4%; ORL 67.0% to 66.4%
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.