The Model Cards
Monday, November 9, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NFL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 12:24 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NFL picks to win1 game, most likely winner first
BUF@
MIN
Pick BUF60% to winat -175market 61%
Props ticket2 overs
Justin Jefferson o4.5 receptions + Josh Allen o151.5 passing yards
+110
fair odds
47.6%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Justin JeffersonMIN · WR
Over 4.5 receptions · model 73% · projects 6.1
Josh AllenBUF · QB
Over 151.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 174.4
Changes before puck drop
- 12:24 PM ET: BUF -170 to -175
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.