The Model Cards
Sunday, November 8, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NFL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NFL picks to win7 games, most likely winner first
LV@
SF
Pick SF78% to winat -485market 80%
ARI@
SEA
Pick SEA77% to winat -470market 79%
NYJ@
KC
Pick KC75% to winat -470market 79%
HOU@
LAC
Pick HOU73% to winat -245market 68%
LAR@
WSH
Pick LAR70% to winat -230market 67%
DET@
MIA
Pick DET70% to winat -305market 72%
NYG@
PHI
Pick NYG64% to winat -162market 59%
Games ticketall 7 picks to win
SF + SEA + KC + HOU + LAR + DET + NYG
+670
combined odds
10.2%
chance it all hits
-21.7%
EV per $1
Each leg is the team most likely to win at the line locked at its game's start; the ticket multiplies those chances, so it is a long shot by design.
Props ticket5 overs
Christian McCaffrey o62.5 rushing yards + Jahmyr Gibbs o77.5 rushing yards + Joe Burrow o340.5 passing yards + Bijan Robinson o104.5 rushing yards + Kenneth Walker III o104.5 rushing yards
+740
fair odds
11.9%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Best-of-both ticket3 picks + 3 props
SF + SEA + KC + Christian McCaffrey o62.5 + Jahmyr Gibbs o77.5 + Joe Burrow o340.5
+532
combined odds
12.6%
chance it all hits
-20.1%
EV per $1
The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Joe BurrowCIN · QB
Over 340.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 391.1
Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RB
Over 104.5 rushing yards · model 65% · projects 134.7
Bijan RobinsonATL · RB
Over 104.5 rushing yards · model 65% · projects 134.8
Christian McCaffreySF · RB
Over 62.5 rushing yards · model 66% · projects 81.2
Jahmyr GibbsDET · RB
Over 77.5 rushing yards · model 66% · projects 100.6
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.