The Model Cards
Tuesday, October 13, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. MLB picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
MLB picks to win1 game, most likely winner first
CLE@
TB
Pick TB56% to winat -132market 54%
Props ticket2 overs
Parker Messick o4.5 strikeouts + Freddy Peralta o3.5 strikeouts
+126
fair odds
44.3%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Best-of-both ticket1 picks + 2 props
TB + Parker Messick o4.5 + Freddy Peralta o3.5
+297
combined odds
24.7%
chance it all hits
-2%
EV per $1
The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Freddy PeraltaTB · P
Over 3.5 strikeouts · model 66% · projects 4.2
Parker MessickCLE · P
Over 4.5 strikeouts · model 67% · projects 5.5
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.