The Model Cards
Friday, October 9, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NHL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 12:24 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NHL picks to win4 games, most likely winner first
NYR@
WSH
Pick WSH56% to winat -148market 57%
SEA@
DET
Pick DET56% to winat -142market 56%
ANA@
WPG
Pick WPG52% to winat -125market 53%
PIT@
CBJ
Pick CBJ52% to winat -118market 52%
Games ticketall 4 picks to win
WSH + DET + WPG + CBJ
+850
combined odds
8.6%
chance it all hits
-18.7%
EV per $1
Each leg is the team most likely to win at the line locked at its game's start; the ticket multiplies those chances, so it is a long shot by design.
Props ticket5 overs
Alex Tuch o1.5 shots on goal + Kyle Connor o3.5 shots on goal + Dylan Larkin o2.5 shots on goal + Jared McCann o2.5 shots on goal + Cutter Gauthier o3.5 shots on goal
+383
fair odds
20.7%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Best-of-both ticket3 picks + 3 props
WSH + DET + WPG + Alex Tuch o1.5 + Kyle Connor o3.5 + Dylan Larkin o2.5
+1033
combined odds
7.5%
chance it all hits
-15.3%
EV per $1
The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Kyle ConnorWPG · L
Over 3.5 shots on goal · model 74% · projects 4.8
Dylan LarkinDET · C
Over 2.5 shots on goal · model 69% · projects 3.2
Cutter GauthierANA · L
Over 3.5 shots on goal · model 67% · projects 4.5
Alex TuchWSH · R
Over 1.5 shots on goal · model 89% · projects 2.8
Jared McCannSEA · L
Over 2.5 shots on goal · model 68% · projects 3.2
Changes before puck drop
- 11:39 AM ET: WSH -142 to -148; CBJ -122 to -118
- 12:24 PM ET: WSH 55.9% to 56.4%; CBJ 52.6% to 52.0%
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.