Saints Rule Out Kaden Elliss and Two Edge Rushers as Bijan Robinson's Falcons Visit on Monday Night

The New Orleans Saints will play the Atlanta Falcons on Monday night without three front-seven starters, and the betting market has noticed. Linebacker Kaden Elliss (calf) and edge rushers Carl Granderson (ankle) and Anfernee Jennings (knee) were ruled out on the final injury report, linebacker Pete Werner (shoulder) is questionable after not practicing all week, and the line has drifted from New Orleans -2.5 at open to -1.5 across much of the market. Kickoff is 8:15 p.m. ET at the Caesars Superdome on ESPN, with both NFC South teams sitting at 1-2.

The timing is about as bad as it gets for New Orleans. Bijan Robinson is coming off a 194-yard rushing night in Atlanta's 35-14 Thursday win at Green Bay, Michael Penix Jr. is making his second start since returning from last November's ACL tear, and the Saints could be fielding neither of their starting linebackers against the most dangerous back in the division.

The final injury report

Atlanta enters relatively clean on offense. Its three questionable players are all defenders, and one of them, Samson Ebukam, returned to a full practice on Saturday for the first time since injuring his hamstring before Week 3. Linebacker Kendal Daniels was upgraded to a full practice on Friday and carries no designation.

Elliss is the headline. He spent the previous three seasons in Atlanta before signing with New Orleans, and he was the every-down linebacker the Saints were counting on to handle exactly this kind of opponent. If Werner joins him on the inactive list, New Orleans is down to backups at both off-ball spots against a back who has topped 100 scrimmage yards in four of his six career meetings with the Saints.

On the edge, losing Granderson and Jennings puts the pass rush almost entirely on Chase Young and Cameron Jordan. Young has carried the unit so far: two sacks against the Raiders in Week 3 gave him 3.5 on the season, the team lead. Jordan has been far less disruptive, and there is little proven depth behind the pair.

Why this matchup tilts toward Atlanta

The Saints' problems on defense would matter less if their offense could lean on the run. It cannot. Travis Etienne Jr. went on injured reserve with a hamstring injury and will miss at least four games, leaving Alvin Kamara as the lead back with Kendre Miller and rookie CJ Donaldson behind him. Kamara has 51 rushing yards on 18 carries in two games since returning from his own knee injury, and he now faces the league's stingiest run defense.

Atlanta has allowed 143 rushing yards through three games, 47.7 per game, the fewest in the NFL, and it has not allowed a rushing touchdown. That profile pushes New Orleans toward Tyler Shough's arm, which is where the Saints have been at their best and also where they have been most fragile. Shough ranks among the league leaders in passing yards, but New Orleans turned the ball over on four straight possessions in the 35-27 loss to Las Vegas, and he now faces an Atlanta defense that is playing as well as any in the league.

The Falcons have their own defensive questions, with Deablo, Ebukam and Abdullah all carrying tags, but Ebukam's full Saturday session points toward him playing. Atlanta's front is healthier than New Orleans' by a wide margin.

Start/sit calls for Monday night

Start Bijan Robinson with total confidence. Missing linebackers and a depleted edge group are exactly the conditions that turn a strong matchup into a ceiling game. He is the top play on the Monday slate.

Start Drake London. Penix's return revived the vertical passing game, and London's nine-catch, 194-yard night in Green Bay showed what that connection looks like at full speed. He is a WR1 again.

Start Michael Penix Jr. as a QB2 with upside. A thinned-out Saints pass rush gives him more time than he would normally get in this building. He is a reasonable streamer in deeper leagues, though he offers little as a runner.

Start Chris Olave and Tyler Shough. Atlanta's run defense makes a pass-heavy script likely, and volume is volume. Shough's turnover risk is real, so managers protecting a lead have reason to be cautious, but his passing-yardage floor remains strong.

Treat Alvin Kamara as a volume flex. He should see the majority of the backfield work, but the matchup is the worst in the league for running backs and his efficiency has been poor. His value leans on receptions.

Sit Noah Fant. Questionable with an abdomen injury and with nothing kicking off later to pivot to, he is not worth the risk. Juwan Johnson is the Saints tight end to start.

Sit Kyle Pitts in most formats. He has been a minor part of the passing game through three weeks and the volume is flowing to Robinson and London.

Betting angle

The move from 2.5 to 1.5 tells the story. Reports indicate money has come in on Atlanta, and a few books have shaded New Orleans down to 2. With the Saints playing without three front-seven starters, the market is right to be skeptical of the home favorite. The value on the Falcons is shrinking as the number falls, but at 1.5 the bet is close to a straight pick on which team wins, and the injury report favors Atlanta.

The total sits at 47.5. The over case is that both offenses can move the ball against depleted or vulnerable defenses. The under case is that New Orleans' run game stalls against the league's best run defense and its passing game coughs the ball up again, ending drives before they become points. Splitting the difference, the stronger angles may be player markets: Robinson's rushing line and touchdown props against backup linebackers, and Shough's interception market given that New Orleans gave the ball away four straight times last week.

For the model's view of this game, see /nfl/predictions and the full Week 4 card at /blog/nfl-week-4-picks-2026. Anyone betting should do so only if they are of legal betting age in their jurisdiction.

What to watch before kickoff

Inactives arrive about 90 minutes before kickoff, roughly 6:45 p.m. ET. The two names that matter most are Werner and Fant. If Werner is out, the Robinson case gets even stronger and the Falcons side becomes more appealing at any price under a field goal. If Fant sits, Johnson's target share gets a small bump.

On the Atlanta side, watch whether Deablo and Ebukam are active. Ebukam's Saturday practice suggests he will be, but losing either would weaken the pass rush that represents the Falcons' biggest edge against Shough.

What's next

The winner climbs to 2-2 in a wide-open NFC South, and the loser falls two games under .500 heading into the middle of October. For New Orleans, the bigger question is how long Elliss, Granderson and Jennings will be out, since a defense this short-handed puts heavy pressure on Shough to win shootouts every week. For Atlanta, a second straight strong game from Penix would cement the Falcons' offense as a weekly fantasy factory and reshape how the division is priced the rest of the way.