Jet Greaves Signs a Three-Year, $15 Million Deal: Columbus Has Its Starting Goalie

The Columbus Blue Jackets signed goaltender Jet Greaves to a three-year contract worth a reported $15 million, a $5 million annual value that runs through the 2028-29 season and avoids what would have been a salary arbitration hearing. Greaves, 25, is coming off a season in which he went 26-19-9 with a 2.60 goals-against average, a .908 save percentage and two shutouts in 55 appearances, becoming the fifth goaltender in franchise history to win 25 games in a season. The contract reportedly includes a five-team no-trade list in its final year.

The signing came on July 23, one of a cluster of arbitration-avoiding deals as the league works through hearings scheduled between July 20 and August 1. Carolina defenseman Ronan Seeley signed a one-year deal the same day.

What the contract tells you about the crease

A $5 million annual value for a goaltender with one full starting season is a commitment, and it is the number that clarifies Columbus' plans. Greaves' cap hit sits just under Elvis Merzlikins', whose contract expires at the end of the coming season. That is the structure of a team transitioning from an expensive veteran to a younger starter, with one season of overlap.

Fifty-five appearances is a genuine workhorse total. Only a handful of goaltenders in the league play that often, and the number is the single most important input to a fantasy goalie's value. Wins, saves and shutouts all accumulate with volume, and a goaltender who plays 55 games has a substantial edge over one who splits a crease evenly regardless of the rate statistics.

The fantasy case and the fantasy caution

The case is volume and wins. Greaves won 26 games behind a Columbus team that has been improving, and he has now been paid like a starter, which means the workload is likely to hold or grow. In fantasy formats that count wins, that is the foundation of a usable starting goalie.

The caution is the save percentage. A .908 mark is below the level that defines an elite fantasy goaltender, and in category leagues that count save percentage and goals-against average, a goalie who plays 55 games at that rate can actively hurt a roster. High volume amplifies whatever the rate statistics are, in both directions.

That produces a specific format split. In leagues that count wins and saves, Greaves is a solid mid-tier starter worth drafting as a second goaltender. In leagues that weight save percentage heavily, he is a player to avoid unless his rate statistics improve.

The Werenski overhang

The complicating factor for every Columbus projection is the Zach Werenski situation. The Norris Trophy winner blocked a trade to Dallas earlier this month using his full no-move clause, and reporting has since connected him to Tampa Bay and Toronto while indicating Columbus is not currently entertaining offers.

A Blue Jackets team that keeps Werenski is a considerably better defensive team than one that trades him, and goaltender value is downstream of team defense more than of any other input. Greaves' win total, his goals-against average and his save percentage all improve or decline with the quality of the defense in front of him.

Fantasy managers evaluating Greaves in an August or September draft should treat the Werenski resolution as a direct input to that evaluation. If Werenski is traded for futures, downgrade Greaves. If Werenski stays, the projection holds.

The Verdexed model take

Verdexed's goaltender projections weight three factors: expected starts, team defensive quality measured through expected goals against, and the goaltender's own save performance above expected. Greaves scores well on the first, uncertainly on the second given the Werenski question, and near league average on the third.

That third point deserves emphasis. A .908 save percentage on a team that allows a high volume of quality chances is a different result from a .908 on a team that suppresses them, and the model separates the two. Its read on Greaves is that his raw numbers understate his performance somewhat, because Columbus has not been an elite defensive team, which is the argument for the contract Columbus just gave him.

The model's projection places Greaves in the tier of goaltenders worth rostering as a second starter in 12-team leagues, with meaningful upside if Columbus continues improving and meaningful downside if the roster is dismantled.

What to do in your league

Draft him as a second goalie, not a first. The volume is real and the wins should follow, but the rate statistics do not support paying a premium.

In leagues that count saves as a category, move him up. A goaltender facing high volume on a team that allows plenty of chances is precisely the profile that wins saves categories, and Greaves' workload makes him one of the better bets in that specific format.

In dynasty formats, the three-year term is meaningful. Goaltending is the most volatile position in fantasy hockey, and a 25-year-old with a defined role, a contract that runs through 2029 and a clear runway once Merzlikins' deal expires is a stable asset in an unstable position.

Betting angle

Columbus' season win total is the market where the goaltending and the Werenski question converge. The Blue Jackets have been trending upward, they retained their starting goaltender at a reasonable number, and their best player has publicly committed to the club after blocking a trade.

If the market has priced Columbus as a team likely to sell, that is a stale assumption. Werenski's veto and the Greaves signing both point toward continuity, and continuity for an improving young team usually means a higher win total than the summer speculation implied.

What's next

The arbitration window closes in early August, and Columbus has now handled its most significant case. The remaining question for the Blue Jackets is entirely about Werenski.

For Greaves specifically, the number to watch when the season starts is the workload split with Merzlikins. If Columbus runs Greaves out for 55 or more games again, the fantasy volume case is confirmed. If the split moves toward 60-40, the value drops sharply.