Jalon Daniels Faces the Packers in His First Start: Egbuka, Godwin and the Green Bay D/ST Call
By Verdexed NFL Desk
Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium, and Jalon Daniels is officially the story. The undrafted rookie from Kansas makes his first NFL start for the 0-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the 1-2 Green Bay Packers, the first start by an undrafted rookie quarterback in franchise history. Baker Mayfield is out at least three weeks with a dislocated right thumb suffered in the 23-16 loss to Minnesota.
The good news for Tampa Bay arrived late in the week: Chris Godwin (ankle) and Bucky Irving (glute) both finished with full practices and carry no game status. The Packers had their own Saturday news, placing defensive tackle Warren Brinson on injured reserve with a groin injury while linebacker Edgerrin Cooper cleared the concussion protocol and came off the injury report.
Who Daniels is throwing to
Start with what is no longer here: Mike Evans left in free agency for San Francisco, ending his 12-year run in Tampa. That leaves Emeka Egbuka as the clear top receiver. Through three weeks he leads the team with 13 catches for 141 yards and a touchdown, and he caught five passes for 62 yards against Minnesota. Godwin is second with 10 catches for 111 yards and nearly had an 85-yard touchdown on third-and-30 last week before a holding penalty wiped it out. Third-round rookie Ted Hurst III has a touchdown, and Jalen McMillan is sidelined with a knee injury.
Irving is the most important piece for a rookie quarterback. He has 180 rushing yards, 13 receptions and a touchdown, and that receiving volume is the outlet Daniels will need behind a line that allowed six sacks and 12 quarterback hits to Minnesota last week.
| Player | Position | Status for Week 4 |
|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | Out (right thumb) |
| Chris Godwin | WR | No designation (ankle) |
| Bucky Irving | RB | No designation (glute) |
| Rueben Bain | OLB | Out (groin/shoulder) |
| Benjamin Morrison | CB | Out (quad) |
| Ko Kieft | TE | Out (elbow) |
| Jacob Parrish | CB | Questionable (personal) |
Fantasy fallout for Tampa's pass catchers
The Sept. 29 news was simply that Daniels would start. The question now is what a full week of first-team reps produced, and what it means for target shares. Daniels earned the QB2 job with a clean preseason, going 27 of 44 for 239 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions across three games while beating out veteran Jake Browning. His regular-season sample is three incompletions and a game-ending interception in relief, which says more about the situation than the player.
Coaches have pointed to his mobility as similar to Mayfield's, and that profile usually means quicker reads, designed rollouts and more scrambles. For fantasy, that pushes volume toward the short and intermediate areas. Egbuka remains a WR2 because he is the first read and wins underneath. Godwin drops to a WR3 or flex; his best work has come on longer developing routes that a rookie may not reach. Irving gets a slight bump in PPR formats as the checkdown valve.
The total tells you how much production there is to go around, and it is not much. Tampa Bay's implied share of a 39.5-point total is in the high teens. Expect one Bucs pass catcher to hit and the rest to disappoint, and Egbuka is the one most likely to clear his floor.
The Packers D/ST as a streamer
Green Bay is a reasonable streamer, but not a slam dunk. The case for: a first-time starter, a Bucs line that just surrendered six sacks, Cooper back at linebacker and a market that expects a low score. The Packers' defensive leaders have produced, with Lukas Van Ness at 2.5 sacks and Xavier McKinney and Keisean Nixon each holding an interception.
The case against is what happened last Thursday. Atlanta put up 498 yards and 242 rushing yards on 41 carries in a 35-14 win at Lambeau, and Green Bay ranks 21st in total defense at 340.7 yards allowed per game. Micah Parsons is still rehabbing his torn ACL, and the Packers are thin up front with Brinson on IR alongside Jacob Monk (quad). A defense that struggled against the run now faces a team whose healthiest weapon is Irving.
The verdict: start the Packers D/ST in 12-team leagues if your alternative is a road defense against a veteran quarterback. The sack and turnover ceiling against an undrafted rookie outweighs the yardage concerns, since fantasy defenses are scored on takeaways and points allowed more than yards. Skip them in shallow leagues where better options sit on waivers.
Betting angle
The market lists Green Bay as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 39.5 (over -115, under -105). The Packers are -198 on the moneyline and Tampa Bay is +164. For context, the Bucs preview from the team site had the number at Packers -4 earlier in the week, so the line has not moved toward Green Bay despite the quarterback news being fully public.
| Market | Number |
|---|---|
| Spread | Packers -3.5 |
| Total | 39.5 |
| Packers moneyline | -198 |
| Buccaneers moneyline | +164 |
Two numbers frame this game. Tampa Bay ranks sixth in total defense at 282.7 yards per game, which is part of why the market refuses to blow this spread out. Green Bay, meanwhile, lost Jayden Reed to season-ending neck surgery and now relies on Christian Watson (17 catches, 284 yards, four touchdowns), Matthew Golden (15 catches, 253 yards) and Tucker Kraft, who turned eight targets into 4 for 26 in the first game without Reed. A sixth-ranked defense against an offense missing its slot weapon supports the under. Verdexed's full game projections live at /nfl/predictions.
What to do in your league
- Start Emeka Egbuka as a WR2. He is the first read for a rookie who will throw short. - Start Bucky Irving as an RB2 with a PPR bump; he is the safety valve behind a leaky line. - Downgrade Chris Godwin to WR3 or flex. He is healthy, but his downfield role suits Mayfield better than Daniels. - Bench Ted Hurst III and the rest of the Bucs depth receivers. - Stream the Packers D/ST in 12-team leagues as a sack-and-turnover play. - Do not chase Daniels in superflex formats unless you need a body; his rushing gives him a floor, but the passing ceiling is unproven.
What's next
The schedule does Tampa Bay no favors. The Bucs travel to Dallas for Thursday Night Football on Oct. 8, meaning Daniels gets one short week to correct whatever goes wrong Sunday before his second start in a road prime-time game. With Mayfield out at least three weeks from the Sept. 27 injury, Daniels is lined up to start both of those games, with a ten-day gap after Thursday serving as the earliest realistic window for Mayfield to return.
That timeline matters for fantasy trades. If Egbuka produces with Daniels, his value holds; if he does not, this is the window to buy Bucs pass catchers at a discount before Mayfield returns. Green Bay hosts Chicago in Week 5, a game moved to a noon Central kickoff, and Cooper's return plus whatever the Packers show against a rookie today will shape how their defense is valued for that divisional matchup.
The broader stakes are simple. An 0-4 start would put Tampa Bay in a deep hole in the NFC South, and the Packers need to stop the bleeding after a home-opener blowout. Expect both teams to lean conservative, which is why the under and the Packers defense are the cleanest ways to play this game.