Jalon Daniels and the 0-4 Buccaneers Open as 10-Point Underdogs at Dallas on Thursday Night
By Verdexed NFL Desk
The Dallas Cowboys opened as roughly 10-point favorites over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for Thursday Night Football in Week 5, one of the biggest numbers on the early board. Tampa Bay is 0-4 for the first time since 2013, Baker Mayfield is still sidelined with a dislocated throwing thumb, and undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels will make his second NFL start on a short week at AT&T Stadium. Kickoff is 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 8.
Dallas comes in at 2-2 and riding a wild finish. The Cowboys erased a 10-point halftime deficit in Houston on Sunday and won 34-30 when Dak Prescott found CeeDee Lamb for a 12-yard touchdown with 40 seconds left. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, lost 17-14 at home to Green Bay in a game decided by Daniels' two first-half interceptions.
Where the line opened
Early markets were split by half a point, with one major outlet posting Dallas -9.5 at open and another listing -10. The total opened at 47.5.
| Market | Opening number | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cowboys -9.5 to -10 | Varies by book |
| Total | 47.5 | Over and under both near -110 |
| Moneyline | Cowboys -625, Buccaneers +455 | Per one major outlet's opening board |
| Records | Buccaneers 0-4, Cowboys 2-2 | Bucs' first 0-4 start since 2013 |
The size of the spread is a statement about quarterback play more than anything else. With Mayfield, Tampa Bay would likely be a modest underdog in Dallas. Without him, the market is pricing the Buccaneers as one of the weakest teams in the league for as long as Daniels is under center.
The quarterback situation in Tampa Bay
Mayfield dislocated his right thumb in Week 3 against Minnesota, and the prognosis has been that he will miss at least three games, with reports putting the full range at three to six weeks. Head coach Todd Bowles has made clear that Daniels remains the starter while Mayfield is out, so Thursday is the second game of what could be a lengthy run.
Daniels' debut was a mixed bag. He completed 19 of 27 passes for 148 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions, and both picks led to Green Bay points, 10 in total. He also ran eight times for 55 yards and led a spirited fourth-quarter push, finding Kenny Gainwell for a touchdown early in the final period. The legs are real. The passing volume is not, at least not yet.
That shows up in the receiving numbers. Chris Godwin caught six passes for 31 yards, and Godwin and Emeka Egbuka combined for eight catches and 44 yards on 11 targets. Bucky Irving carried 16 times for 61 yards. Nobody in the Tampa Bay skill group is getting the downfield looks that drive fantasy weeks.
Dallas' offense is rolling, its defense is not
The Cowboys' win in Houston was a reminder of how quickly this offense can flip a game. Prescott finished 32 of 45 for 335 yards and a touchdown after throwing for just 87 yards in the first half. Lamb set a career high with 17 catches for 189 yards and the winning score. Javonte Williams ran for a career-best three touchdowns, all after halftime. George Pickens drew extra coverage but still delivered two key second-half catches and drew two big penalties on scoring drives.
The one scare came after the game, when Prescott was seen with his throwing hand wrapped. He told reporters his hand was stepped on during the first half and left a cut, and he described the wrap as a precaution against swelling. He has downplayed any concern, so it is something to watch on the Tuesday and Wednesday practice reports rather than a reason to change plans.
The defense is the bigger issue. Dallas allowed 397 yards to Houston and had given up 387 yards per game through its first three games, among the worst marks in the league. New cornerback Joey Porter Jr., acquired from Pittsburgh last week, made a quiet but encouraging debut: he played 24 of 52 defensive snaps and was targeted once without allowing a catch. His snap count should rise, which helps against the one passing threat Tampa Bay can still lean on.
Fantasy outlook for Thursday
CeeDee Lamb is a locked-in WR1. Seventeen catches in a single game is an outlier, but the target dominance is not. Against a winless team with a rookie quarterback, Dallas should be in control, and Lamb is the engine.
Dak Prescott is a QB1. A 10-point home favorite with a 47.5 total implies one of the higher team totals of the week. The only caveat is the hand, and early reports say it is minor.
Javonte Williams is a strong RB2 with touchdown upside. If Dallas builds a lead, the clock-killing carries go to him, and he just showed what that looks like near the goal line.
George Pickens is a WR2. Defenses shading toward Lamb leave single coverage on the other side.
Jalon Daniels is a superflex dart only. The rushing floor gives him some appeal in two-quarterback formats, but 148 passing yards does not play in 1QB leagues.
Bucky Irving is a volume RB2 with game-script risk. If Tampa Bay falls behind early, his carries could shrink, which caps his ceiling in this matchup.
Godwin and Egbuka are WR3s at best. The talent is obvious, the quarterback situation is the problem. Neither should be benched in deep leagues, but expectations need to come down until Mayfield returns.
The Cowboys D/ST is a streaming option. Daniels turned the ball over twice in his debut, and a hostile road environment on a short week is a tougher test.
Betting angle
Double-digit spreads on Thursday night are always uncomfortable, because short rest tends to compress the gap between good and bad teams. Sunday's loss to Green Bay came down to three points, and Tampa Bay had a chance late. The case for the Buccaneers is that Daniels' legs create plays when the structure breaks down, and that a Dallas defense allowing nearly 400 yards a game is not built to cover big numbers comfortably.
The case for Dallas is simpler: a hot offense at home against a rookie quarterback who has not yet shown he can push the ball downfield. If you like the Cowboys, the number is worth watching through the week, because any positive Mayfield news would move it toward Tampa Bay and any Prescott practice limitation could do the same.
For the over, Dallas' scoring pace and defensive leaks are the case. For the under, Tampa Bay's passing ceiling with Daniels has been low, and a large Dallas lead could lead to a run-heavy second half. Player markets may be the cleaner play: Lamb's receptions and Daniels' rushing yards both reflect roles that look stable.
For the model's view on Thursday, see /nfl/predictions; the Week 5 picks will appear on the picks page later in the week. Bet only if you are of legal betting age in your jurisdiction.
What's next
Because this is a Thursday game, the first injury report arrives Monday as an estimated practice report, and the Tuesday and Wednesday sessions will set the tone. The key items are Prescott's hand, Mayfield's thumb (any sign of practice participation would be significant), and whether Porter's role expands. For fantasy managers, lineups for this game lock Thursday night, so the decisions on Godwin, Egbuka and Irving need to be made early in the week.