Connor Hellebuyck Is Suspended and Stuart Skinner Is the Jets Starter

The Jets suspended Connor Hellebuyck in mid-September for failing to report to training camp, and with opening night on Tuesday there is still no resolution. Hellebuyck made his trade request public on August 27 and has not appeared at camp since. Winnipeg's general manager has publicly taken the position that a contract is a contract and that the team is in no rush, telling reporters the offers received so far have not fit what the Jets want.

That leaves Winnipeg preparing to open the season with Stuart Skinner as its starting goaltender, a role nobody projected for him when the summer began. For fantasy managers with Hellebuyck drafted as a top goalie, and for anyone holding a Jets futures position, this is now the most consequential unresolved situation in hockey.

The contract is the obstacle

Hellebuyck is entering the third season of a seven-year, $59.5 million contract signed in October of 2023. His salary this season is reported at $7.5 million against an $8.5 million cap hit that runs through 2030-31, with roughly $39.5 million still owed. Critically, he holds a full no-movement clause through this season, which means he must approve any destination.

That clause is why this has not resolved. Winnipeg cannot simply take the best offer; it has to take the best offer from a team Hellebuyck will accept. Reported destinations he would consider include Buffalo, New Jersey, San Jose, and both 2026 Stanley Cup Final participants, Vegas and Carolina. Deals with Florida and Buffalo reportedly came close during the summer without closing.

The combination of a large long-term cap hit, an aging-curve question at a position where teams are increasingly reluctant to commit, and a veto right over destinations produces exactly the standoff we are watching. One league executive characterized the market as challenging, and that assessment looks correct.

Winnipeg's plan B is thinner than it looks

The Jets let backup Eric Comrie leave in free agency on July 1, when he signed a two-year, $2.3 million deal with San Jose. They then signed Skinner to a two-year, $3.75 million contract, a move that at the time fueled speculation he was insurance against a Hellebuyck departure. That speculation has now been confirmed by circumstance.

Skinner is a legitimate NHL goaltender with playoff experience, and a Winnipeg team that plays a strong structural defensive game is a better environment than the one he came from. But the gap between Hellebuyck and any replacement is among the largest single-player gaps in the sport, and goaltending is the position where that gap most directly converts into standings points.

There is also the depth question. A team whose starter is a recent acquisition and whose backup situation is unsettled has no margin for a goalie injury, which is a real risk across an 84-game schedule.

Fantasy fallout

Hellebuyck is the hardest asset to value in fantasy hockey right now. If he is traded to a contender in October, he is immediately a top-tier goaltender again with a strong team in front of him. If the standoff extends into November, he may cost his managers a quarter of the season.

The approach depends on your league. In a deep league with generous injured reserve or roster flexibility, holding him is defensible because the upside is a season-long number one goalie acquired at a discount. In a shallow league where a roster spot is expensive, the holding cost is real and selling into any optimism about a trade is reasonable.

Skinner is the direct beneficiary and he is being underdrafted relative to his new situation. A starting goaltender on a structurally sound defensive team is a fantasy asset regardless of name recognition, and he is available far later than his projected workload justifies. He is the clearest value in the goaltending market.

If Hellebuyck lands with one of his reported preferred destinations, the goalie currently projected to start there loses value immediately. That is the second-order effect worth planning for: anyone rostering the incumbent starter in Buffalo, New Jersey, Vegas or Carolina is holding an asset with meaningful downside risk.

Betting angle

Winnipeg's win total and playoff odds are the markets most affected, and the question is whether they have been adjusted enough. Goaltending is the single highest-leverage position in hockey for team-level outcomes, and the difference between an elite starter and a good one is worth several standings points over a full season.

The market has had a month to price the trade request, which means the easy edge is gone. What remains is the conditional structure: Winnipeg's number should improve if Hellebuyck is traded for real assets, and deteriorate further if the standoff drags into the season with no return. Live betting the Jets' division and playoff markets as this develops is more attractive than taking a static position now.

On the other side, the teams linked to Hellebuyck have Stanley Cup prices that do not yet reflect the possibility of adding an elite goaltender. Those are the cheaper options on a conditional outcome.

The Verdexed model take

Our model treats goaltending as a distinct input from team defensive structure, which is why replacing an elite starter with a good one produces a larger projected swing in Winnipeg's points total than replacing a comparable skater would. The Jets' underlying defensive numbers remain strong, and the model's projection for Skinner in that system is better than his career numbers alone imply. But the downgrade from Hellebuyck is still the largest single-player negative adjustment the model has applied to any team this offseason.

The model's clearest edge is on Skinner as a fantasy asset, where his projected games played and workload sit far above his draft position. Its second-clearest is on Winnipeg's team totals in the early season, which it reads as slightly too generous given both the goaltending downgrade and the absence of depth behind the new starter.

What is next

The Jets have no deadline forcing action, which is precisely the problem. Hellebuyck loses salary while suspended and Winnipeg loses games, and neither side has yet decided the cost is intolerable. Watch for any softening in the list of destinations he will accept, because expanding that list is the only mechanism that meaningfully improves the trade market.

For now: draft Skinner, be honest with yourself about how long you can afford to hold Hellebuyck, and take the conditional positions rather than the static ones.