Cale Makar Is on a Lighter Program at Avalanche Camp and Colorado Is Playing It Safe
By Verdexed NHL Desk
Cale Makar is working on a reduced program to open Colorado's training camp after a lower-body injury surfaced during offseason training, head coach Jared Bednar confirmed to reporters. Makar skated with the main group for roughly 20 minutes on the first day of camp before heading to the locker room, and Bednar had said in advance that it was unlikely the defenseman would be ready for a full Day 1 workload.
Bednar described the approach as playing it safe on behalf of both the player and the organization, and said Makar would be a full participant at some point during camp. The coach also clarified that the issue is unrelated to the injury Makar dealt with during Colorado's playoff run.
How worried to be
Not very, based on the available information, with one caveat. A defenseman who skates with the main group on the first day of camp is not a defenseman with a serious problem. Teams do not put players with meaningful structural injuries on the ice with the top group at all, and the fact that Makar participated rather than watching is the most informative detail in the report.
The caveat is that Colorado has every incentive to be vague. The Avalanche are a contender whose entire structure runs through Makar's ability to transport the puck, and there is no upside for the organization in providing a precise diagnosis in September.
The working assumption should be that Makar is available for the regular season opener and that his camp workload will be managed. That is a normal September for a 27-year-old franchise defenseman.
Why it matters more than a typical camp injury
Makar is the most valuable fantasy defenseman in hockey and it is not close. He is the rare blueliner who produces at a first-line forward's rate, quarterbacks a top power play, and plays the minutes that guarantee volume in every category a fantasy league counts.
He is also the first defenseman off the board in essentially every draft format, frequently in the first round overall. A player selected that early carries no discount for risk, which means any camp uncertainty shifts the expected value of that pick without shifting the price.
The structural argument for Makar is that the positional scarcity at defense is severe. The gap between the best fantasy defenseman and the fifth-best is larger than the gap between the best forward and the fifteenth-best, which is why drafters reach for him and why they are usually right to.
The Verdexed model take
Verdexed's model applies a games-played adjustment to Makar that is smaller than his camp status might suggest, because lower-body issues that allow first-day participation historically cost zero to three regular season games. The per-game projection is unchanged.
That produces a ranking that keeps Makar as the clear No. 1 defenseman and inside the top 10 overall in standard scoring, which is where he was before this news. The correct response to a September camp note of this type is usually to do nothing, and the model reflects that.
Where the model does adjust is in Colorado's team projection for the first week of the season. The Avalanche without Makar are a materially different team, and a game or two missed at the start is worth pricing into early-season markets even if it is not worth pricing into a draft ranking.
The secondary beneficiary in a short absence would be whoever quarterbacks the top power play unit in his place, which is a streaming consideration for the first week rather than a roster decision.
Betting angle
Colorado's season point total is not affected by this news and should not be bet on the basis of it. A player expected to miss zero to three games does not move a team's 82-game projection by enough to create an edge.
The Norris Trophy market is the one to watch. If Makar's price drifts on camp uncertainty, that is a buying opportunity rather than a warning. Award markets are driven by narrative and by counting statistics accumulated over a full season, and a defenseman who misses two games in October is not disadvantaged in either.
For early-season game markets, the useful move is to confirm his status before betting any Colorado game in the opening week. The Avalanche's expected goal differential with and without Makar differs by enough to flip a short number.
The broader Avalanche picture
Colorado's camp has been comparatively healthy elsewhere. Gabriel Landeskog reported to camp with a full offseason behind him, which is a genuinely significant development for a club that has spent years managing his availability.
That context matters for how the Makar news should be read. A team with a clean bill of health elsewhere can afford to be cautious with its best player in September. A team already dealing with multiple absences would be more likely to push.
What's next
Watch for the first day Makar is listed as a full participant. That is the signal that the lighter program has ended and that the opener is not in question.
Draft him where he has always been drafted. A 20-minute skate with the main group on the first day of camp is not a reason to move the best fantasy defenseman in hockey down a board, and the managers who do will be the ones bidding him back in November.