McKenna's a Lock at No. 1, So the Real 2026 NHL Draft Drama Is San Jose's No. 2 Pick

The 2026 NHL Draft has a settled top pick and an unsettled second one, and that second pick is where the intrigue lives. Gavin McKenna, the Penn State forward and consensus No. 1 prospect, is widely projected to go first overall when the draft opens June 26 in Buffalo. The drama belongs to the San Jose Sharks, who hold the No. 2 selection and whose general manager, Mike Grier, has been openly willing to listen to offers. A trade of that pick would reshape the top of the draft and shift dynasty fantasy boards across the league.

McKenna is the prize and, by all accounts, not available for debate at the top. The question is what San Jose does with the pick right behind him. Grier said after the lottery that he is always open to listening to what is out there, and insiders have reported him weighing offers. The last time a top-five pick was traded after the lottery was years ago, which makes any deal a long shot historically, but the live buzz is real and worth tracking.

What's on the board at No. 2

If the Sharks stay and pick, the projected selection is a high-end forward prospect, with a Swedish forward frequently mocked into the slot. The class also features standout defensemen at the top, names like Keaton Verhoeff and Chase Reid, who give a team trading up a choice between forward upside and blue-line value. Behind McKenna and the No. 2 conversation, the early order runs through Vancouver, Chicago, the New York Rangers, and Calgary, each a potential partner if San Jose decides to move down.

The trade scenarios floated by executives are illustrative valuations rather than reported active talks, so they should be treated as hypotheticals. The general shape of them involves San Jose moving down a few spots to add a young roster player and additional picks, the kind of return a rebuilding team weighs against the certainty of a top prospect.

The Verdexed model take

Verdexed's framework treats the No. 1 pick as locked and the No. 2 as the genuine variable. The model's read is that McKenna is the class's clear headliner and that the value question centers on whether San Jose prioritizes the best available prospect or a package that accelerates its rebuild. For a team in San Jose's position, the calculus is whether a proven young NHL player plus extra capital outweighs the upside of a top-two talent, and reasonable front offices can land on either side.

The model leans toward the Sharks keeping the pick, simply because top-two selections so rarely move, while acknowledging the buzz is louder than usual. Either outcome reshapes the early order in ways that matter for keeper and dynasty leagues.

Fantasy and futures angle

For dynasty and keeper leagues, McKenna is the obvious top target, the prospect whose long-term value anchors the class. The names whose stock swings most on a Sharks trade are the No. 2 candidates and the top defensemen, since their landing spots, and therefore their development paths and fantasy outlooks, depend on whether San Jose picks or deals. A forward going to a rebuilding team with open ice projects differently than one going to a deeper roster.

The betting angle is the draft-position prop market. A market on whether the No. 2 pick is traded is a long shot against given the history, but the live buzz creates value for those who think Grier acts. Markets on which player goes second, or whether a defenseman cracks the top three, carry value precisely because the order behind McKenna is genuinely uncertain.

The case for keeping versus dealing

The Sharks' decision comes down to a philosophical question that every rebuilding team faces: is a top-two prospect worth more than a package that speeds up the timeline? Keeping the pick means adding a potential franchise cornerstone, a player whose value compounds over a decade if he hits. Dealing it means trading certainty of talent for a younger NHL contributor plus additional draft capital, which spreads the bet across more outcomes but lowers the ceiling of any single one.

For a team early in a rebuild, the conventional wisdom leans toward keeping the pick and the higher-upside prospect, since rebuilds are built on stars and the No. 2 slot is a rare chance to add one. But Grier's willingness to listen suggests the front office is at least open to the alternative, perhaps because a specific young roster player or a particular package could move the needle on a faster return to contention. The fact that the conversation is happening at all is what makes this draft different.

The ripple effects extend to every team picking in the top six. A San Jose trade-down would reshuffle which prospects land where, and the teams immediately behind the Sharks are the ones with the most to gain or lose depending on whether they jump up or get leapfrogged. For dynasty managers, that uncertainty is exactly why the early order is worth watching closely in the days before the draft.

What's next

The pre-draft window will firm up whether San Jose's listening turns into a deal. Watch the insider reporting around the Sharks and the teams picking just behind them, since a move would cascade through the lottery order. For dynasty managers and futures bettors: McKenna is the anchor, and the No. 2 pick is the live wire. The draft's biggest decision is not who goes first, it is what San Jose does at second.