The Model Cards
Friday, November 13, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NBA picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 12:27 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NBA picks to win7 games, most likely winner first
UTAH@
HOU
Pick HOU88% to winat -1340market 89%
GS@
SA
Pick SA84% to winat -700market 84%
POR@
SAC
Pick POR77% to winat -468market 79%
MIL@
ORL
Pick ORL74% to winat -359market 75%
NY@
IND
Pick NY72% to winat -324market 73%
ATL@
CHI
Pick ATL71% to winat -277market 71%
OKC@
LAC
Pick OKC70% to winat -269market 70%
Games ticketall 7 picks to win
HOU + SA + POR + ORL + NY + ATL + OKC
+366
combined odds
14.9%
chance it all hits
-30.6%
EV per $1
Each leg is the team most likely to win at the line locked at its game's start; the ticket multiplies those chances, so it is a long shot by design.
Props ticket5 overs
Franz Wagner o24.5 points + Deni Avdija o23.5 points + Victor Wembanyama o33.5 points + Jalen Johnson o20.5 points + Alperen Sengun o19.5 points
+630
fair odds
13.7%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Best-of-both ticket3 picks + 3 props
HOU + SA + POR + Franz Wagner o24.5 + Deni Avdija o23.5 + Victor Wembanyama o33.5
+371
combined odds
17.8%
chance it all hits
-16%
EV per $1
The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Victor WembanyamaSA · F
Over 33.5 points · model 67% · projects 39
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
Over 20.5 points · model 66% · projects 23.8
Franz WagnerORL · F
Over 24.5 points · model 69% · projects 29
Alperen SengunHOU · C
Over 19.5 points · model 65% · projects 22.4
Deni AvdijaPOR · F
Over 23.5 points · model 69% · projects 27.8
Changes before puck drop
- 11:27 AM ET: POR -497 to -468; ORL -378 to -359; ATL -264 to -277; NY -310 to -324
- 12:27 PM ET: SA 84.2% to 83.6%; POR 77.6% to 76.6%; ORL 74.8% to 74.1%; NY 69.4% to 72.2%; OKC 70.7% to 69.9%
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.