The Model Cards
Wednesday, November 11, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NBA picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 12:29 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NBA picks to win7 games, most likely winner first
SA@
CHI
Pick SA87% to winat -1200market 89%
LAL@
MIL
Pick LAL83% to winat -750market 85%
GS@
HOU
Pick HOU69% to winat -249market 69%
BOS@
TOR
Pick BOS67% to winat -243market 68%
CLE@
NY
Pick NY62% to winat -180market 62%
DEN@
MEM
Pick DEN61% to winat -167market 60%
ORL@
UTAH
Pick ORL60% to winat -155market 58%
Games ticketall 7 picks to win
SA + LAL + HOU + BOS + NY + DEN + ORL
+894
combined odds
7.4%
chance it all hits
-26.1%
EV per $1
Each leg is the team most likely to win at the line locked at its game's start; the ticket multiplies those chances, so it is a long shot by design.
Props ticket5 overs
Nikola Jokic o20.5 points + Shai Gilgeous-Alexander o30.5 points + Victor Wembanyama o32.5 points + Luka Doncic o37.5 points + Anthony Davis o25.5 points
+671
fair odds
13.0%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Best-of-both ticket3 picks + 3 props
SA + LAL + HOU + Nikola Jokic o20.5 + Shai Gilgeous-Alexander o30.5 + Victor Wembanyama o32.5
+469
combined odds
14.8%
chance it all hits
-15.4%
EV per $1
The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Victor WembanyamaSA · F
Over 32.5 points · model 66% · projects 37.6
Luka DoncicLAL · G
Over 37.5 points · model 66% · projects 43.3
Nikola JokicDEN · C
Over 20.5 points · model 69% · projects 24.2
Anthony DavisWSH · F
Over 25.5 points · model 65% · projects 29.3
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
Over 30.5 points · model 67% · projects 35.5
Changes before puck drop
- 12:29 PM ET: NY in (CLE at NY, 62.4% at -180); NO out (BKN at NO, now 62.6%); LAL 81.5% to 82.6%; HOU 68.0% to 68.8%; BOS -256 to -243, 69.4% to 67.3%; DEN -166 to -167, 61.3% to 60.5%; ORL -170 to -155, 62.8% to 59.5%
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.