The Model Cards
Saturday, November 7, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NBA picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 12:18 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NBA picks to win7 games, most likely winner first
WSH@
OKC
Pick OKC81% to winat -545market 81%
BKN@
ATL
Pick ATL71% to winat -269market 70%
HOU@
PHX
Pick HOU68% to winat -284market 71%
DEN@
IND
Pick DEN67% to winat -268market 70%
SA@
POR
Pick SA66% to winat -217market 66%
ORL@
GS
Pick GS64% to winat -217market 66%
NY@
CLE
Pick NY61% to winat -191market 63%
Games ticketall 7 picks to win
OKC + ATL + HOU + DEN + SA + GS + NY
+880
combined odds
6.8%
chance it all hits
-33%
EV per $1
Each leg is the team most likely to win at the line locked at its game's start; the ticket multiplies those chances, so it is a long shot by design.
Props ticket5 overs
Victor Wembanyama o28.5 points + Nikola Jokic o22.5 points + Stephen Curry o31.5 points + Alperen Sengun o19.5 points + Shai Gilgeous-Alexander o31.5 points
+566
fair odds
15.0%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Best-of-both ticket3 picks + 3 props
OKC + ATL + HOU + Victor Wembanyama o28.5 + Nikola Jokic o22.5 + Stephen Curry o31.5
+579
combined odds
12.7%
chance it all hits
-13.8%
EV per $1
The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Victor WembanyamaSA · F
Over 28.5 points · model 69% · projects 33.7
Nikola JokicDEN · C
Over 22.5 points · model 69% · projects 26.6
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
Over 31.5 points · model 68% · projects 37
Stephen CurryGS · G
Over 31.5 points · model 69% · projects 37.2
Alperen SengunHOU · C
Over 19.5 points · model 68% · projects 23
Changes before puck drop
- 12:18 PM ET: OKC 79.8% to 81.3%; ATL 70.0% to 70.9%; HOU 69.3% to 68.2%; SA 65.5% to 66.5%; GS 66.8% to 64.1%
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.