The Model Cards
Friday, November 6, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NBA picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 12:32 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NBA picks to win7 games, most likely winner first
SA@
SAC
Pick SA87% to winat -1180market 89%
BOS@
CHA
Pick BOS72% to winat -324market 73%
WSH@
ATL
Pick ATL71% to winat -297market 72%
UTAH@
DAL
Pick DAL69% to winat -264market 70%
TOR@
MIL
Pick TOR67% to winat -249market 69%
OKC@
MEM
Pick OKC62% to winat -170market 60%
POR@
LAL
Pick LAL61% to winat -154market 58%
Games ticketall 7 picks to win
SA + BOS + ATL + DAL + TOR + OKC + LAL
+861
combined odds
7.8%
chance it all hits
-25.3%
EV per $1
Each leg is the team most likely to win at the line locked at its game's start; the ticket multiplies those chances, so it is a long shot by design.
Props ticket5 overs
Jalen Johnson o19.5 points + Cooper Flagg o24.5 points + Luka Doncic o32.5 points + Victor Wembanyama o32.5 points + Shai Gilgeous-Alexander o32.5 points
+577
fair odds
14.8%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Best-of-both ticket3 picks + 3 props
SA + BOS + ATL + Jalen Johnson o19.5 + Cooper Flagg o24.5 + Luka Doncic o32.5
+472
combined odds
14.7%
chance it all hits
-15.9%
EV per $1
The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Victor WembanyamaSA · F
Over 32.5 points · model 67% · projects 37.8
Luka DoncicLAL · G
Over 32.5 points · model 68% · projects 38.1
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
Over 32.5 points · model 67% · projects 37.8
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
Over 19.5 points · model 70% · projects 23.4
Cooper FlaggDAL · F
Over 24.5 points · model 70% · projects 29.2
Changes before puck drop
- 12:17 PM ET: LAL in (POR at LAL, 61.3% at -155); MIN out (MIN at NO, now 61.9%); SA 86.4% to 87.4%; BOS 72.5% to 71.7%; ATL 69.3% to 70.7%; OKC 60.8% to 62.3%
- 12:32 PM ET: ATL -283 to -297; DAL -277 to -264; TOR -257 to -249; LAL -155 to -154
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.