The Model Cards
Thursday, November 5, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NFL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NFL picks to win1 game, most likely winner first
JAX@
BAL
Pick JAX78% to winat -535market 81%
Props ticket2 overs
Zay Flowers o3.5 receptions + Trevor Lawrence o197.5 passing yards
+105
fair odds
48.8%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB
Over 197.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 226.9
Zay FlowersBAL · WR
Over 3.5 receptions · model 75% · projects 5.1
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.