The Model Cards
Wednesday, November 4, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NBA picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 12:26 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NBA picks to win7 games, most likely winner first
DAL@
SA
Pick SA82% to winat -545market 81%
CHI@
NY
Pick NY82% to winat -597market 82%
LAL@
SAC
Pick LAL80% to winat -570market 82%
MIL@
BOS
Pick BOS80% to winat -567market 82%
MIN@
HOU
Pick HOU70% to winat -288market 71%
IND@
MEM
Pick MEM65% to winat -256market 69%
UTAH@
NO
Pick NO64% to winat -228market 67%
Games ticketall 7 picks to win
SA + NY + LAL + BOS + HOU + MEM + NO
+415
combined odds
12.7%
chance it all hits
-34.7%
EV per $1
Each leg is the team most likely to win at the line locked at its game's start; the ticket multiplies those chances, so it is a long shot by design.
Props ticket5 overs
Jalen Johnson o19.5 points + Victor Wembanyama o27.5 points + Nikola Jokic o22.5 points + Cade Cunningham o24.5 points + Luka Doncic o36.5 points
+595
fair odds
14.4%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Best-of-both ticket3 picks + 3 props
SA + NY + LAL + Jalen Johnson o19.5 + Victor Wembanyama o27.5 + Nikola Jokic o22.5
+392
combined odds
17.8%
chance it all hits
-12.3%
EV per $1
The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Luka DoncicLAL · G
Over 36.5 points · model 65% · projects 42
Victor WembanyamaSA · F
Over 27.5 points · model 69% · projects 32.5
Nikola JokicDEN · C
Over 22.5 points · model 68% · projects 26.5
Cade CunninghamDET · G
Over 24.5 points · model 67% · projects 28.5
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
Over 19.5 points · model 70% · projects 23.4
Changes before puck drop
- 12:26 PM ET: HOU 71.1% to 70.2%; MEM 66.0% to 65.4%; NO 63.6% to 64.3%
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.