The Model Cards

Tuesday, November 3, 2026

Each box is its own card and its own record. NHL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.

Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 3:09 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.

NHL logoNHL picks to win5 games, most likely winner first

1

DET logoDET@TBL logoTBL

Pick TBL68% to winat -278market 71%

Lock
2

CAR logoCAR@NSH logoNSH

Pick CAR64% to winat -198market 64%

Confident
3

WPG logoWPG@MTL logoMTL

Pick MTL63% to winat -175market 61%

Confident
4

MIN logoMIN@PHI logoPHI

Pick MIN60% to winat -185market 62%

Confident
5

ANA logoANA@VAN logoVAN

Pick ANA59% to winat -155market 58%

Confident

Games ticketall 5 picks to win

TBL + CAR + MTL + MIN + ANA

+715

combined odds

9.6%

chance it all hits

-21.9%

EV per $1

Each leg is the team most likely to win at the line locked at its game's start; the ticket multiplies those chances, so it is a long shot by design.

Props ticket5 overs

Kirill Kaprizov o1.5 shots on goal + Cutter Gauthier o2.5 shots on goal + Jack Hughes o2.5 shots on goal + Nathan MacKinnon o2.5 shots on goal + Connor McDavid o2.5 shots on goal

+278

fair odds

26.5%

chance it all hits

-120

take legs at or better

Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.

Best-of-both ticket3 picks + 3 props

TBL + CAR + MTL + Kirill Kaprizov o1.5 + Cutter Gauthier o2.5 + Jack Hughes o2.5

+461

combined odds

15.6%

chance it all hits

-12.5%

EV per $1

The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.

Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score

Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C

Over 2.5 shots on goal · model 70% · projects 3.3

Cutter GauthierANA · L

Over 2.5 shots on goal · model 85% · projects 4.2

Jack HughesNJD · C

Over 2.5 shots on goal · model 74% · projects 3.5

Connor McDavidEDM · C

Over 2.5 shots on goal · model 66% · projects 3.1

Kirill KaprizovMIN · L

Over 1.5 shots on goal · model 92% · projects 2.9

Changes before puck drop

  • 12:16 PM ET: CAR 63.1% to 63.6%
  • 12:31 PM ET: MTL -192 to -185; MIN -175 to -185
  • 2:54 PM ET: MTL -185 to -175
  • 3:09 PM ET: TBL -265 to -278

The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.

Today's cards