The Model Cards
Sunday, November 1, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NFL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 11:33 AM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NFL picks to win7 games, most likely winner first
TEN@
CIN
Pick CIN81% to winat -675market 84%
IND@
JAX
Pick JAX77% to winat -500market 80%
NE@
MIA
Pick NE72% to winat -325market 73%
LAC@
LAR
Pick LAR69% to winat -278market 71%
PHI@
WSH
Pick WSH69% to winat -250market 69%
ARI@
DAL
Pick DAL63% to winat -310market 73%
BAL@
BUF
Pick BUF60% to winat -166market 60%
Games ticketall 7 picks to win
CIN + JAX + NE + LAR + WSH + DAL + BUF
+627
combined odds
8.1%
chance it all hits
-41%
EV per $1
Each leg is the team most likely to win at the line locked at its game's start; the ticket multiplies those chances, so it is a long shot by design.
Props ticket5 overs
Josh Allen o199.5 passing yards + Joe Burrow o277.5 passing yards + Jacoby Brissett o272.5 passing yards + Dak Prescott o312.5 passing yards + Drake Maye o231.5 passing yards
+747
fair odds
11.8%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Best-of-both ticket3 picks + 3 props
CIN + JAX + NE + Josh Allen o199.5 + Jacoby Brissett o272.5 + Dak Prescott o312.5
+548
combined odds
12.5%
chance it all hits
-19.1%
EV per $1
The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Joe BurrowCIN · QB
Over 277.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 319.1
Dak PrescottDAL · QB
Over 312.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 358.8
Jacoby BrissettARI · QB
Over 272.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 312.9
Drake MayeNE · QB
Over 231.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 265.8
Josh AllenBUF · QB
Over 199.5 passing yards · model 66% · projects 230
Changes before puck drop
- 11:33 AM ET: DAL -305 to -310; BUF -170 to -166
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.