The Model Cards
Saturday, October 31, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NBA picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 12:18 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NBA picks to win5 games, most likely winner first
MIN@
SA
Pick SA80% to winat -600market 82%
SAC@
MEM
Pick MEM74% to winat -360market 75%
CLE@
MIL
Pick CLE72% to winat -380market 76%
POR@
UTAH
Pick POR68% to winat -340market 74%
ATL@
NO
Pick ATL62% to winat -180market 62%
Games ticketall 5 picks to win
SA + MEM + CLE + POR + ATL
+279
combined odds
17.6%
chance it all hits
-33.2%
EV per $1
Each leg is the team most likely to win at the line locked at its game's start; the ticket multiplies those chances, so it is a long shot by design.
Props ticket5 overs
Domantas Sabonis o18.5 points + Donovan Mitchell o25.5 points + Jalen Johnson o19.5 points + Victor Wembanyama o24.5 points + Deni Avdija o25.5 points
+554
fair odds
15.3%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Best-of-both ticket3 picks + 3 props
SA + MEM + CLE + Domantas Sabonis o18.5 + Donovan Mitchell o25.5 + Jalen Johnson o19.5
+453
combined odds
14.4%
chance it all hits
-20.3%
EV per $1
The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Victor WembanyamaSA · F
Over 24.5 points · model 68% · projects 28.9
Domantas SabonisSAC · F
Over 18.5 points · model 71% · projects 22.3
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
Over 19.5 points · model 69% · projects 23.1
Deni AvdijaPOR · F
Over 25.5 points · model 66% · projects 29.4
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
Over 25.5 points · model 70% · projects 30.4
Changes before puck drop
- 11:33 AM ET: MEM -470 to -360; CLE -340 to -380; POR -285 to -340
- 12:18 PM ET: MEM 77.0% to 73.6%; CLE 71.1% to 71.7%; POR 63.4% to 67.5%
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.