The Model Cards
Friday, October 30, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NBA picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 12:17 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NBA picks to win7 games, most likely winner first
CHI@
BOS
Pick BOS84% to winat -900market 86%
DET@
BKN
Pick DET73% to winat -325market 73%
IND@
MIA
Pick MIA72% to winat -325market 73%
LAC@
MIN
Pick MIN71% to winat -278market 71%
ORL@
TOR
Pick TOR65% to winat -218market 66%
HOU@
DAL
Pick HOU65% to winat -238market 68%
DEN@
PHX
Pick DEN58% to winat -180market 62%
Games ticketall 7 picks to win
BOS + DET + MIA + MIN + TOR + HOU + DEN
+733
combined odds
7.8%
chance it all hits
-35%
EV per $1
Each leg is the team most likely to win at the line locked at its game's start; the ticket multiplies those chances, so it is a long shot by design.
Props ticket5 overs
Jayson Tatum o21.5 points + Cade Cunningham o21.5 points + Luka Doncic o27.5 points + Giannis Antetokounmpo o25.5 points + Nikola Jokic o23.5 points
+574
fair odds
14.8%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Best-of-both ticket3 picks + 3 props
BOS + DET + MIA + Jayson Tatum o21.5 + Cade Cunningham o21.5 + Luka Doncic o27.5
+470
combined odds
14.8%
chance it all hits
-15.9%
EV per $1
The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Nikola JokicDEN · C
Over 23.5 points · model 67% · projects 27.3
Luka DoncicLAL · G
Over 27.5 points · model 69% · projects 32.6
Cade CunninghamDET · G
Over 21.5 points · model 69% · projects 25.5
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA · F
Over 25.5 points · model 67% · projects 29.7
Jayson TatumBOS · F
Over 21.5 points · model 70% · projects 25.7
Changes before puck drop
- 11:32 AM ET: BOS -950 to -900
- 12:17 PM ET: DEN in (DEN at PHX, 58.3% at -180); DET 70.8% to 72.7%; MIA 70.2% to 72.1%; MIN 70.8% to 71.4%; TOR 64.3% to 65.2%; HOU 63.8% to 65.0%
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.