The Model Cards
Thursday, October 29, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NFL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NFL picks to win1 game, most likely winner first
CAR@
GB
Pick GB62% to winat -185market 62%
Props ticket2 overs
Tetairoa McMillan o4.5 receptions + Jordan Love o254.5 passing yards
+133
fair odds
42.8%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Jordan LoveGB · QB
Over 254.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 292.3
Tetairoa McMillanCAR · WR
Over 4.5 receptions · model 66% · projects 5.6
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.