The Model Cards
Wednesday, October 28, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. MLB picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 11:41 AM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
MLB picks to win1 game, most likely winner first
MIL@
TB
Pick MIL56% to winat -157market 58%
Props ticket2 overs
Jackson Chourio o0.5 hits + Jacob Misiorowski o4.5 strikeouts
-161
fair odds
61.7%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Best-of-both ticket1 picks + 2 props
MIL + Jackson Chourio o0.5 + Jacob Misiorowski o4.5
+166
combined odds
34.8%
chance it all hits
-7.6%
EV per $1
The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Jacob MisiorowskiMIL · P
Over 4.5 strikeouts · model 76% · projects 6.1
Jackson ChourioMIL · LF
Over 0.5 hits · model 81% · projects 1.6
Changes before puck drop
- 11:41 AM ET: MIL -155 to -157
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.