The Model Cards
Monday, October 26, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NFL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 1:08 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NFL picks to win1 game, most likely winner first
DAL@
PHI
Pick DAL64% to winat -218market 66%
Props ticket2 overs
Javonte Williams o49.5 rushing yards + Dak Prescott o219.5 passing yards
+133
fair odds
42.9%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Dak PrescottDAL · QB
Over 219.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 252.4
Javonte WilliamsDAL · RB
Over 49.5 rushing yards · model 66% · projects 64.3
Changes before puck drop
- 12:19 PM ET: DAL -218 to -205
- 1:08 PM ET: DAL -205 to -218
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.