The Model Cards
Sunday, October 25, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NFL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 12:53 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NFL picks to win7 games, most likely winner first
IND@
MIN
Pick MIN77% to winat -290market 71%
NYG@
HOU
Pick HOU77% to winat -500market 80%
DEN@
ARI
Pick DEN71% to winat -230market 67%
CLE@
TEN
Pick CLE69% to winat -130market 54%
SF@
ATL
Pick SF68% to winat -148market 57%
LAR@
LV
Pick LAR62% to winat -180market 62%
MIA@
NYJ
Pick NYJ59% to winat -230market 67%
Games ticketall 7 picks to win
MIN + HOU + DEN + CLE + SF + LAR + NYJ
+1432
combined odds
7.2%
chance it all hits
+10%
EV per $1
Each leg is the team most likely to win at the line locked at its game's start; the ticket multiplies those chances, so it is a long shot by design.
Props ticket5 overs
C.J. Stroud o281.5 passing yards + Brock Purdy o250.5 passing yards + Bijan Robinson o98.5 rushing yards + Jahmyr Gibbs o72.5 rushing yards + Matthew Stafford o261.5 passing yards
+745
fair odds
11.8%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Best-of-both ticket3 picks + 3 props
MIN + HOU + DEN + Brock Purdy o250.5 + Bijan Robinson o98.5 + Jahmyr Gibbs o72.5
+734
combined odds
11.6%
chance it all hits
-3.1%
EV per $1
The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Bijan RobinsonATL · RB
Over 98.5 rushing yards · model 65% · projects 127.2
C.J. StroudHOU · QB
Over 281.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 323.9
Jahmyr GibbsDET · RB
Over 72.5 rushing yards · model 65% · projects 93.6
Brock PurdySF · QB
Over 250.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 288.1
Matthew StaffordLAR · QB
Over 261.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 300.4
Changes before puck drop
- 12:53 PM ET: LAR -175 to -180; NYJ -225 to -230
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.