The Model Cards
Thursday, October 22, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NFL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NFL picks to win1 game, most likely winner first
NE@
CHI
Pick NE51% to winat +130market 42%
Props ticket2 overs
Caleb Williams o195.5 passing yards + Drake Maye o189.5 passing yards
+133
fair odds
42.9%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Caleb WilliamsCHI · QB
Over 195.5 passing yards · model 66% · projects 225.4
Drake MayeNE · QB
Over 189.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 218.1
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.