The Model Cards
Wednesday, October 21, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NBA picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 2:09 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NBA picks to win5 games, most likely winner first
CHI@
TOR
Pick TOR78% to winat -440market 78%
DAL@
HOU
Pick HOU77% to winat -440market 78%
GS@
LAL
Pick LAL75% to winat -230market 67%
MIL@
WSH
Pick WSH62% to winat -175market 61%
SAC@
LAC
Pick LAC61% to winat -185market 62%
Games ticketall 5 picks to win
TOR + HOU + LAL + WSH + LAC
+423
combined odds
16.9%
chance it all hits
-11.4%
EV per $1
Each leg is the team most likely to win at the line locked at its game's start; the ticket multiplies those chances, so it is a long shot by design.
Props ticket5 overs
Jalen Johnson o20.5 points + Luka Doncic o28.5 points + Stephen Curry o28.5 points + Anthony Davis o20.5 points + LaMelo Ball o21.5 points
+610
fair odds
14.1%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Best-of-both ticket3 picks + 3 props
TOR + HOU + LAL + Jalen Johnson o20.5 + Luka Doncic o28.5 + Stephen Curry o28.5
+565
combined odds
14.7%
chance it all hits
-2.6%
EV per $1
The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Luka DoncicLAL · G
Over 28.5 points · model 69% · projects 33.7
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
Over 20.5 points · model 70% · projects 24.5
Anthony DavisWSH · F
Over 20.5 points · model 66% · projects 23.8
LaMelo BallMIN · G
Over 21.5 points · model 65% · projects 24.7
Stephen CurryGS · G
Over 28.5 points · model 68% · projects 33.4
Changes before puck drop
- 12:24 PM ET: HOU 76.0% to 77.0%; LAC 61.5% to 60.9%
- 12:54 PM ET: HOU -440 to -455
- 2:09 PM ET: HOU -455 to -440
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.