The Model Cards
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NBA picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 2:09 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NBA picks to win3 games, most likely winner first
PHI@
NY
Pick NY63% to winat -180market 62%
BOS@
DET
Pick DET54% to winat +100market 48%
OKC@
SA
Pick SA52% to winat -112market 50%
Games ticketall 3 picks to win
NY + DET + SA
+489
combined odds
17.8%
chance it all hits
+4.6%
EV per $1
Each leg is the team most likely to win at the line locked at its game's start; the ticket multiplies those chances, so it is a long shot by design.
Props ticket5 overs
Cade Cunningham o20.5 points + LeBron James o19.5 points + Jaylen Brown o25.5 points + Victor Wembanyama o23.5 points + Shai Gilgeous-Alexander o28.5 points
+566
fair odds
15.0%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Best-of-both ticket3 picks + 3 props
NY + DET + SA + Cade Cunningham o20.5 + LeBron James o19.5 + Jaylen Brown o25.5
+1657
combined odds
5.9%
chance it all hits
+4.6%
EV per $1
The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Victor WembanyamaSA · F
Over 23.5 points · model 67% · projects 27.4
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
Over 28.5 points · model 67% · projects 33.2
Jaylen BrownPHI · G
Over 25.5 points · model 69% · projects 30.1
Cade CunninghamDET · G
Over 20.5 points · model 70% · projects 24.5
LeBron JamesPHI · F
Over 19.5 points · model 70% · projects 23.3
Changes before puck drop
- 11:29 AM ET: SA -118 to -110
- 12:29 PM ET: DET 54.8% to 53.5%; SA 53.0% to 52.4%
- 2:09 PM ET: DET +102 to +100; SA -110 to -112
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.