The Model Cards
Monday, October 19, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NFL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 12:17 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NFL picks to win1 game, most likely winner first
WSH@
SF
Pick SF81% to winat -455market 79%
Props ticket2 overs
Christian McCaffrey o53.5 rushing yards + Brock Purdy o257.5 passing yards
+131
fair odds
43.3%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Brock PurdySF · QB
Over 257.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 296.1
Christian McCaffreySF · RB
Over 53.5 rushing yards · model 66% · projects 70.1
Changes before puck drop
- 12:17 PM ET: SF -470 to -455
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.