The Model Cards
Sunday, October 18, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NFL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 12:32 PM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NFL picks to win7 games, most likely winner first
ARI@
LAR
Pick LAR81% to winat -750market 85%
LAC@
KC
Pick KC78% to winat -440market 78%
NYJ@
NE
Pick NE73% to winat -345market 74%
TEN@
IND
Pick IND72% to winat -340market 74%
HOU@
JAX
Pick JAX68% to winat -148market 57%
BUF@
LV
Pick BUF67% to winat -225market 66%
DAL@
GB
Pick GB65% to winat -118market 52%
Games ticketall 7 picks to win
LAR + KC + NE + IND + JAX + BUF + GB
+938
combined odds
9.7%
chance it all hits
+0.9%
EV per $1
Each leg is the team most likely to win at the line locked at its game's start; the ticket multiplies those chances, so it is a long shot by design.
Props ticket5 overs
Kenneth Walker III o74.5 rushing yards + Bijan Robinson o67.5 rushing yards + Caleb Williams o256.5 passing yards + Matthew Stafford o331.5 passing yards + Josh Allen o231.5 passing yards
+737
fair odds
11.9%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Best-of-both ticket3 picks + 3 props
LAR + KC + NE + Kenneth Walker III o74.5 + Bijan Robinson o67.5 + Caleb Williams o256.5
+535
combined odds
13.0%
chance it all hits
-17.6%
EV per $1
The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Matthew StaffordLAR · QB
Over 331.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 380.6
Josh AllenBUF · QB
Over 231.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 265.7
Caleb WilliamsCHI · QB
Over 256.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 295
Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RB
Over 74.5 rushing yards · model 66% · projects 97.1
Bijan RobinsonATL · RB
Over 67.5 rushing yards · model 66% · projects 87.6
Changes before puck drop
- 12:32 PM ET: LAR -800 to -750; NE -340 to -345
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.