The Model Cards
Sunday, October 11, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NFL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 11:36 AM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NFL picks to win7 games, most likely winner first
PHI@
JAX
Pick JAX75% to winat -395market 77%
MIN@
NO
Pick MIN67% to winat -142market 56%
HOU@
TEN
Pick HOU66% to winat -355market 75%
CLE@
NYJ
Pick CLE66% to winat +114market 45%
DET@
ARI
Pick DET65% to winat -250market 69%
CIN@
MIA
Pick CIN63% to winat -355market 75%
DEN@
LAC
Pick DEN61% to winat -192market 63%
Games ticketall 7 picks to win
JAX + MIN + HOU + CLE + DET + CIN + DEN
+1499
combined odds
5.5%
chance it all hits
-11.8%
EV per $1
Each leg is the team most likely to win at the line locked at its game's start; the ticket multiplies those chances, so it is a long shot by design.
Props ticket5 overs
Jaxon Smith-Njigba o4.5 receptions + Jahmyr Gibbs o80.5 rushing yards + Bijan Robinson o60.5 rushing yards + Joe Burrow o256.5 passing yards + Jared Goff o283.5 passing yards
+653
fair odds
13.3%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Best-of-both ticket3 picks + 3 props
JAX + MIN + HOU + Jaxon Smith-Njigba o4.5 + Jahmyr Gibbs o80.5 + Bijan Robinson o60.5
+782
combined odds
10.4%
chance it all hits
-8%
EV per $1
The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Jahmyr GibbsDET · RB
Over 80.5 rushing yards · model 66% · projects 104.9
Joe BurrowCIN · QB
Over 256.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 295.3
Jared GoffDET · QB
Over 283.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 326.3
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · WR
Over 4.5 receptions · model 71% · projects 6
Bijan RobinsonATL · RB
Over 60.5 rushing yards · model 66% · projects 78.8
Changes before puck drop
- 11:36 AM ET: HOU -360 to -355
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.