The Model Cards
Thursday, October 8, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NFL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Posted 11:00 AM ET, updated 11:42 AM ET. Live until each game starts; a leg locks at its own first pitch at the line then on offer and is never edited after.
NFL picks to win1 game, most likely winner first
TB@
DAL
Pick DAL75% to winat -470market 79%
Props ticket2 overs
Jalon Daniels o168.5 passing yards + Dak Prescott o286.5 passing yards
+135
fair odds
42.5%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Best-of-both ticket1 picks + 2 props
DAL + Jalon Daniels o168.5 + Dak Prescott o286.5
+185
combined odds
31.7%
chance it all hits
-9.6%
EV per $1
The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Dak PrescottDAL · QB
Over 286.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 329.1
Jalon DanielsTB · QB
Over 168.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 193.8
Changes before puck drop
- 11:42 AM ET: DAL -455 to -470
The card posts each morning and stays live until each game starts: a leg locks at its own first pitch and is never edited after, and every change before that is listed above. Grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.