The Model Cards
Tuesday, October 6, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. MLB picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Frozen 11:00 AM ET, prices are freeze-time lines and never edited after.
MLB picks to win2 games, most likely winner first
MIL@
SD
Pick SD55% to winat -136market 55%
LAD@
ATL
Pick ATL51% to winat -109market 50%
Games ticketall 2 picks to win
SD + ATL
+233
combined odds
28.2%
chance it all hits
-6.2%
EV per $1
Each leg is the team most likely to win at the card's locked line; the ticket multiplies those chances, so it is a long shot by design.
Props ticket4 overs
Nick Pivetta o3.5 strikeouts + Chris Sale o5.5 strikeouts + Dustin May o3.5 strikeouts + Yoshinobu Yamamoto o5.5 strikeouts
+256
fair odds
28.1%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Best-of-both ticket2 picks + 3 props
SD + ATL + Nick Pivetta o3.5 + Chris Sale o5.5 + Dustin May o3.5
+742
combined odds
11.1%
chance it all hits
-6.2%
EV per $1
The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD · P
Over 5.5 strikeouts · model 71% · projects 7
Chris SaleATL · P
Over 5.5 strikeouts · model 73% · projects 7.2
Nick PivettaSD · P
Over 3.5 strikeouts · model 76% · projects 4.7
Dustin MayMIL · P
Over 3.5 strikeouts · model 72% · projects 4.5
The card freezes each morning before games start and never changes; grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.