The Model Cards
Monday, October 5, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NFL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Frozen 11:00 AM ET, prices are freeze-time lines and never edited after.
NFL picks to win1 game, most likely winner first
ATL@
NO
Pick ATL50% to winat +110market 46%
Props ticket2 overs
Bijan Robinson o65.5 rushing yards + Tyler Shough o312.5 passing yards
+136
fair odds
42.3%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Best-of-both ticket1 picks + 2 props
ATL + Bijan Robinson o65.5 + Tyler Shough o312.5
+396
combined odds
21.3%
chance it all hits
+5.6%
EV per $1
The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Tyler ShoughNO · QB
Over 312.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 358.6
Bijan RobinsonATL · RB
Over 65.5 rushing yards · model 65% · projects 84.4
The card freezes each morning before games start and never changes; grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.