The Model Cards
Sunday, October 4, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NFL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Frozen 2:15 PM ET, prices are freeze-time lines and never edited after.
NFL picks to win7 games, most likely winner first
TEN@
BAL
Pick BAL80% to winat -700market 84%
MIA@
MIN
Pick MIN79% to winat -520market 80%
LAC@
SEA
Pick SEA78% to winat -375market 76%
NE@
BUF
Pick BUF69% to winat -310market 73%
NYJ@
CHI
Pick CHI65% to winat -185market 62%
DET@
CAR
Pick DET63% to winat -180market 62%
DEN@
SF
Pick SF61% to winat -148market 57%
Games ticketall 7 picks to win
BAL + MIN + SEA + BUF + CHI + DET + SF
+817
combined odds
8.4%
chance it all hits
-23.3%
EV per $1
Each leg is the team most likely to win at the card's locked line; the ticket multiplies those chances, so it is a long shot by design.
Props ticket5 overs
Jaxon Smith-Njigba o4.5 receptions + Kenneth Walker III o88.5 rushing yards + Jahmyr Gibbs o74.5 rushing yards + Joe Burrow o256.5 passing yards + Patrick Mahomes o258.5 passing yards
+607
fair odds
14.1%
chance it all hits
-120
take legs at or better
Props carry no market price here, so the ticket is shown at fair odds: the payout that breaks even if the model's probabilities are right. Legs taken at -120 or better beat fair.
Best-of-both ticket3 picks + 3 props
BAL + MIN + SEA + Jaxon Smith-Njigba o4.5 + Kenneth Walker III o88.5 + Jahmyr Gibbs o74.5
+418
combined odds
16.3%
chance it all hits
-15.4%
EV per $1
The strongest picks to win at their locked lines with the strongest overs at fair odds, on one ticket.
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RB
Over 88.5 rushing yards · model 66% · projects 115.2
Jahmyr GibbsDET · RB
Over 74.5 rushing yards · model 65% · projects 96.2
Patrick MahomesKC · QB
Over 258.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 296.9
Joe BurrowCIN · QB
Over 256.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 294.7
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · WR
Over 4.5 receptions · model 78% · projects 6.5
The card freezes each morning before games start and never changes; grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.