The Model Cards
Thursday, October 1, 2026
Each box is its own card and its own record. NFL picks are never mixed with another league's, on the card, the ticket, or the ledger.
Frozen 11:00 AM ET, prices are freeze-time lines and never edited after.
NFL picks to win1 game, most likely winner first
1
PIT@
CLE
Pick PIT50% to winat -148market 57%
Lean
Prop cardovers the model gives at least 65%, graded on the box score
Deshaun WatsonCLE · QB
Over 189.5 passing yards · model 65% · projects 218
Jaylen WarrenPIT · RB
Over 55.5 rushing yards · model 66% · projects 72.3
The card freezes each morning before games start and never changes; grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.