NHL2026-10-13NHL Best Bets Tonight, October 13: Six Picks at 59% or Better on a 16-Game Night, the Penguins Are the Value, and MacKinnon and Connor Lead the Shots Board
By Verdexed Analytics
Sixteen games, and the NHL has staggered them: a puck drops every 15 minutes from 6:00 PM ET in Detroit to 9:00 PM in Salt Lake City, then Anaheim at 9:45, Los Angeles at 10:30 and San Jose at 11:00. That is five straight hours of hockey, and it is the kind of night a model either earns its keep or gets buried under coin flips. So here is the one number that shapes everything below: at 55% and up, the model is 33-14 this season (70%). Below 55%, it is 21-21. Tonight it has eight picks above that line and eight below it, and the Model Card carries six of them, every one at 59% or better. Last night's card was three coin flips and went 1-2; tonight's is built from the band the model has actually been good at.
This is the late-afternoon edition. The model rebuilt at 6 AM ET, the card posted at 11 AM ET and has been updating every 15 minutes since (it is live until each game starts, and every leg locks at its own puck drop), and the goalies below are DailyFaceoff's as of mid-afternoon. The live card is always on the Model Cards page.
The board, in puck-drop order
| Puck drop (ET) | Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | Model alone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:00 PM | NJD at DET | Pass | DET | 52% | -115 | 51% | +1 | 53% |
| 6:15 PM | FLA at CBJ | Lean | CBJ | 56% | -135 | 55% | +1 | 60% |
| 6:30 PM | BUF at MTL | Lean | MTL | 57% | -155 | 58% | -1 | 55% |
| 6:45 PM | WSH at CAR | Play | CAR | 59% | -155 | 58% | +1 | 61% |
| 7:00 PM | SEA at PHI | Pass | PHI | 51% | -122 | 53% | -2 | 47% (SEA 53%) |
| 7:15 PM | TBL at NYR | Play | TBL | 59% | -162 | 59% | 0 | 59% |
| 7:30 PM | STL at OTT | Pass | STL | 51% | -112 | 50% | +1 | 52% |
| 7:45 PM | VAN at NYI | Play | NYI | 64% | -205 | 64% | -1 | 61% |
| 8:00 PM | PIT at CHI | Play | PIT | 61% | -162 | 59% | +2 | 65% |
| 8:15 PM | MIN at WPG | Pass | WPG | 52% | -115 | 51% | +1 | 55% |
| 8:30 PM | COL at DAL | Pass | COL | 50.2% | -102 | 48% | +2 | 55% |
| 8:45 PM | VGK at NSH | Pass | VGK | 53% | -125 | 53% | 0 | 52% |
| 9:00 PM | TOR at UTA | Play | UTA | 60% | -162 | 59% | 0 | 61% |
| 9:45 PM | CGY at ANA | Play | ANA | 60% | -175 | 61% | -1 | 57% |
| 10:30 PM | EDM at LAK | Pass | EDM | 54% | -130 | 54% | 0 | 54% |
| 11:00 PM | BOS at SJS | Pass | BOS | 54% | -125 | 53% | 0 | 54% |
Our number is the model's win probability blended with the market, the number the record grades. Market is the vig-free probability the price implies. Edge is ours minus theirs, in points. Model alone is the model before it looks at the price, which is where the disagreements live. Play is the card's tier for 58% and up (nothing reaches Lock at 65% tonight); Lean means the side clears 55% but sits off the card; Pass means the model still has a side, but it is in the 50 to 55% band where its record is a coin flip. Prices are as of mid-afternoon; they move, and the card moves with them until puck drop.
The six on the card
Every NHL card takes the four most likely winners on the slate, and adds a fifth, sixth or seventh when they clear 58%. Tonight six clear it, so the card is six legs deep, ordered here by our number.
| Leg | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Model alone | Market | The line that matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN at NYI, 7:45 PM | Playthe firmest pick on the slate | NYI | 64% | -205 | 61% | 64% | Lankinen is 0-5 with a .745 |
| PIT at CHI, 8:00 PM | Playthe best price on the card | PIT | 61% | -162 | 65% | 59% | The model alone is 5 points above the price |
| CGY at ANA, 9:45 PM | Play | ANA | 60% | -175 | 57% | 61% | Calgary is 0-5 and minus 3.8 a game |
| TOR at UTA, 9:00 PM | Play | UTA | 60% | -162 | 61% | 59% | Utah's 5-on-5 numbers, by a distance |
| TBL at NYR, 7:15 PM | Play | TBL | 59% | -162 | 59% | 59% | Shesterkin is out; Garand has a .945 |
| WSH at CAR, 6:45 PM | Play | CAR | 59% | -155 | 61% | 58% | Five straight wins and the loudest shot share on the board |
New York Islanders over Vancouver Canucks, 64%, -205 (7:45 PM). The firmest call of the night, and the goalie matchup is the reason it is not close. Thatcher Demko is out, and Kevin Lankinen, projected again, is 0-5 this season with a .745 save percentage: 70 saves on 94 shots. Ilya Sorokin is confirmed at the other end, 104 saves on 111 (.937). The model's drivers are expected goals at 5-on-5 (+6.4 points), goal margin (+4.5) and the goalies (+2.1); the case against is the power play (-2.6). Vancouver is 2-5, has lost four straight, is being outscored by 1.6 a game and is on the fourth game of a road trip. The Islanders are without Mathew Barzal and Alexander Romanov, the Canucks without Demko and Filip Chytil. One honest caveat: at -205 the price is a shade firmer than the model alone (61%), so this is the most likely winner on the slate, not the best value on it. Line NYI -1.5, total 6.5.
Pittsburgh Penguins over Chicago Blackhawks, 61%, -162 (8:00 PM). If you only take one side tonight on price, this is the one. The model alone makes Pittsburgh 64.6% against a market 59%, the widest gap in our favour on the whole card. Expected goals at 5-on-5 is worth +11.2 points to the Penguins, the biggest single driver on any leg tonight, with goal margin (+6.0) behind it; high-danger chances (-2.1) are the case against. Chicago is 1-5, minus 2.3 a game, and without Frank Nazar and Andrew Mangiapane (an injury line worth 1.2 points to Pittsburgh). Sergei Murashov is confirmed, .937 this season, including 43 saves on 45 in an overtime loss on Friday; Spencer Knight, likely for Chicago, is 1-3 with an .885. Pittsburgh has won four of the last six meetings. Line PIT -1.5, total 6.5.
Anaheim Ducks over Calgary Flames, 60%, -175 (9:45 PM). Calgary is 0-5 and has been outscored by 3.8 goals a game, the worst margin on tonight's slate, and Dustin Wolf, likely again, is 0-3 with an .816. Goal margin (+7.4), shot share (Corsi, +2.6) and head to head (+2.1; Anaheim has won five of the last six) carry it. The case against is real, though: the Ducks are without Cutter Gauthier and Troy Terry, the biggest injury line on the slate at 2.3 points against them, and the model alone has this at 57% against a market 61%. Anaheim is on the card because 60% is the third-best number on the board, not because -175 is a bargain. Line ANA -1.5, total 6.5.
Utah Mammoth over Toronto Maple Leafs, 60%, -162 (9:00 PM). Sorry, Leafs fans. The model has Utah on the two numbers it trusts most in hockey: expected goals at 5-on-5 (+9.2 points) and shot share (+6.0), with goal margin (+1.8) behind; the case against is a small venue reading (-1.6). Utah is 4-2 and plus 1.2 a game; Toronto is 3-2-1 and plus 0.3, and is without Chris Tanev, Max Domi and Dakota Joshua. Anthony Stolarz is confirmed (2-0, .904) and Karel Vejmelka is likely (3-1, .907), so the net is a wash. The model alone (61%) and the market (59%) agree. Auston Matthews still projects for 3.4 shots, which makes his over 2.5 a 72% proposition on our number. Line UTA -1.5, total 6.5.
Tampa Bay Lightning over New York Rangers, 59%, -162 (7:15 PM). Igor Shesterkin is out, and that is not the edge you might think. Dylan Garand is confirmed for the Rangers and has been excellent: 2-1 with a .945, 52 saves on 55. The goalie reading is the case against Tampa (-2.5 points), because Andrei Vasilevskiy, likely, is 3-1 with an .890 so far. What carries the Lightning is everything else: expected goals at 5-on-5 (+7.6), shot share (+3.5) and rest (+2.2, three days against the Rangers' two). Tampa has won four straight; the Rangers are 5-2 and 4-0 at home, and have won four of the last six meetings. The model alone, the market and our number all sit at 59%. The total is 5.5, the lowest on the slate, and Garand projects to 27.3 saves, so his over is a play at 25.5 or lower. Line TBL -1.5.
Carolina Hurricanes over Washington Capitals, 59%, -155 (6:45 PM). The first card leg off the line, and the loudest shot-quality case on the board: expected goals at 5-on-5 (+9.0 points) and shot share (+8.2) together, with the venue (+4.8) behind; a small shot-margin reading (-1.7) is the case against. Carolina has won five straight and is 5-1-1 and plus 1.4 a game, playing its fourth game in seven days. Pyotr Kochetkov, likely, is 3-0 with a .912; Logan Thompson is confirmed for Washington, 3-1 with a .902. Carolina is without Jordan Staal, Seth Jarvis and Alexander Nikishin; Washington without Pierre-Luc Dubois, Matt Roy and Rasmus Sandin. The model alone (61%) is three points above the market (58%). Sebastian Aho over 1.5 shots is on the props card at 93%. Line CAR -1.5, total 6.5.
Six tired teams
Monday night's three games left six teams on the second of a back to back tonight: New Jersey, Florida, Buffalo, Ottawa, Minnesota and Vegas. Over the last two seasons NHL teams in that spot have won 43.7% of their games against 51.1% otherwise, and the back to back is the heaviest schedule weight in the headline model, worth seven points or so on its own in every one of these games. The model takes the rested team in five of the six. The honest part: only two of those five clear 55%, and the other three land in the band where the model has been a coin flip.
| Puck drop (ET) | Game | Tired team | Call | Our side | Our number | What the back to back is worth | Their net tonight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:30 PM | BUF at MTL | BUF | Lean | MTL | 57% | +7.2 to Montreal | Luukkonen, projected after starting Monday |
| 6:15 PM | FLA at CBJ | FLA | Leanwith value | CBJ | 56% | +7.3 to Columbus | Schmid, likely after starting Monday |
| 8:15 PM | MIN at WPG | MIN | Pass | WPG | 52% | +7.4 to Winnipeg | Pickard, his first start of the season |
| 6:00 PM | NJD at DET | NJD | Pass | DET | 52% | +7.4 to Detroit | Allen, confirmed |
| 7:30 PM | STL at OTT | OTT | Pass | STL | 51% | +7.4 to St. Louis | Ersson, projected |
| 8:45 PM | VGK at NSH | VGK | Pass | VGK | 53% | -7.3 against Vegas | Hill, likely |
Columbus over Florida, 56%, -135 (6:15 PM) is the one to look at twice. The model alone makes it 59.6% against a market 55%, the second-widest gap in our favour on the night. The back to back (+7.3), rest (+6.7) and the goalies (+3.0) carry it; shot share (-2.7) is the case against. Florida is 2-2-2, has lost two straight, is 1-4 in its last five and is without Aleksander Barkov and Brad Marchand (1.8 points toward Columbus). Akira Schmid is likely to start the second night after making 18 saves on 21 in Buffalo on Monday, and he is 0-1-1 with an .868; Cam Talbot is confirmed for Columbus (20 of 22 in his one start). Florida has won five of the last six meetings, which is why the number is not higher.
Montreal over Buffalo, 57%, -155 (6:30 PM) is the firmer number but the thinner price: the market (58%) is above the model alone (55%), and Buffalo is the better 5-on-5 team (-4.2 points against Montreal). Jacob Fowler is confirmed for the Canadiens, 1-1 with a .938 after a 30-save shutout on Saturday. Buffalo's net is the thing to watch: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is only projected, and he played on Monday.
The other four are passes on the side, for four different reasons. Minnesota's Calvin Pickard makes his first start of the season in Winnipeg, with Stuart Skinner (.920) in for the injured Connor Hellebuyck at the other end, and the Wild are the better team on goal margin; Winnipeg's case is the schedule and Kyle Connor, below. Detroit's John Gibson is 1-3 with an .862 and gave up five on 15 shots in his last start, which is the case against a Detroit side the schedule favours. Ottawa is 5-1, won 4-1 in New Jersey on Monday (the model had picked the Devils), and St. Louis's edge is the schedule plus Joel Hofer's .930. And Vegas is the one tired team the model still backs, on the strength of expected goals at 5-on-5 (+9.1), at 53%: a coin flip with a good story.
Where the model and the market split
The served number blends the model with the market, so the disagreements are easier to see in the model alone. Gap is the model alone minus the vig-free market, in points.
| Game | Call | Side | Model alone | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL at DAL | Pass | COL | 55% | 48% | +7 |
| SEA at PHI | Watch | SEA | 53% | 47% | +6 |
| PIT at CHI | Play | PIT | 65% | 59% | +5 |
| FLA at CBJ | Lean | CBJ | 60% | 55% | +5 |
| MIN at WPG | Pass | WPG | 55% | 51% | +4 |
| WSH at CAR | Play | CAR | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| VAN at NYI | Play | NYI | 61% | 64% | -3 |
| BUF at MTL | Lean | MTL | 55% | 58% | -3 |
| CGY at ANA | Play | ANA | 57% | 61% | -4 |
Two of the biggest gaps are not on the card, and they are worth a sentence each. Colorado at Dallas (8:30 PM, ESPN): the model alone likes the Avalanche on shot share (+7.0) and expected goals (+6.9), even without Cale Makar, while the market leans Dallas, and the blend lands at a pure pick 'em. The goalie matchup is the thing the headline number does not price: Jake Oettinger has a .963 this season, Mackenzie Blackwood an .867. Pass on the side; Nathan MacKinnon is the play in this game, below. Seattle at Philadelphia (7:00 PM, Prime Video): the model alone takes Seattle, 4-2 and plus 1.5 a game, over a Flyers team still looking for its first win (0-5-2, minus 2.9 a game, without Travis Konecny and Rasmus Ristolainen) with Dan Vladar at .857. The served pick is Philadelphia at 51% only because the market's 53% pulls the blend across the line. Our number says this is a coin flip; the model's own read says Seattle at about even money. That is a Watch, not a bet.
The late window
For the night owls, the last two puck drops are both passes on the side and both worth staying up for. Edmonton at Los Angeles (10:30 PM): the Oilers are 4-0-1 and have won four straight, the Kings are 0-2-2 and winless, and the model still makes it only 54% Edmonton, because the Oilers are without Zach Hyman and Matt Savoie (1.6 points against them) and Devon Levi is 3-0 on an .863, nearly identical to Darcy Kuemper's .865. Goal margin (+5.5) and the power play (+5.1) carry Edmonton; the goalies (-2.1) are the case against. This game is where the props card lives: Bouchard and McDavid over 1.5 shots, and McDavid's 1.5 projected assists. Boston at San Jose (11:00 PM, ESPN): Boston 54% on expected goals at 5-on-5 (+5.2) and the venue (+5.0) after flying 4,300 km and three time zones, with Jeremy Swayman (.932, projected) against Yaroslav Askarov (.860), a goalie gap the number does not fully carry. David Pastrnak (3.5 projected shots, 75% over 2.5) and Macklin Celebrini (3.3, 70%) are the shots plays.
All 32 goalies
Statuses are DailyFaceoff's as of mid-afternoon; confirmations keep landing on the goalies page. This season is every start since the September 29 opener. The model names the goalie matchup in its drivers, but the headline number moves on goalie news only through the market line, so an Upgrade is a reason to look twice at a Pass and a Downgrade a reason to be careful with a Lean.
| Puck drop (ET) | Goalie | Call | Team | Status | This season | Last start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:00 PM | Jake Allen | Hold | NJD | Confirmed | 2-1, .896 (69 of 77) | 20 of 21, win, Oct 10 |
| 6:00 PM | John Gibson | Downgrade for Detroit | DET | Confirmed | 1-3, .862 (75 of 87) | 10 of 15, loss, Oct 9 |
| 6:15 PM | Akira Schmid | Downgrade for Florida, started in Buffalo on Monday | FLA | Likely | 0-1-1, .868 (46 of 53) | 18 of 21, loss, Oct 12 |
| 6:15 PM | Cam Talbot | Hold | CBJ | Confirmed | 1-0, .909 (20 of 22) | 20 of 22, win, Oct 9 |
| 6:30 PM | Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | Watchstarted on Monday too | BUF | Projected | 2-2, .812 (56 of 69) | 13 of 14, win, Oct 12 |
| 6:30 PM | Jacob Fowler | Upgrade for Montreal | MTL | Confirmed | 1-1, .938 (45 of 48) | 30 of 30, win, Oct 10 |
| 6:45 PM | Logan Thompson | Hold | WSH | Confirmed | 3-1, .902 (101 of 112) | 22 of 27, loss, Oct 11 |
| 6:45 PM | Pyotr Kochetkov | Hold | CAR | Likely | 3-0, .912 (52 of 57) | 18 of 19, win, Oct 11 |
| 7:00 PM | Philipp Grubauer | Watchprojected | SEA | Projected | 1-1, .915 (65 of 71) | 37 of 40, win, Oct 9 |
| 7:00 PM | Dan Vladar | Downgrade for Philadelphia | PHI | Confirmed | 0-3, .857 (90 of 105) | 27 of 32, loss, Oct 10 |
| 7:15 PM | Andrei Vasilevskiy | Hold | TBL | Likely | 3-1, .890 (73 of 82) | 20 of 23, win, Oct 10 |
| 7:15 PM | Dylan Garand | Upgrade for the Rangers, in for Shesterkin | NYR | Confirmed | 2-1, .945 (52 of 55) | 19 of 21, win, Oct 11 |
| 7:30 PM | Joel Hofer | Upgrade for St. Louis | STL | Likely | 1-1-1, .930 (66 of 71) | 24 of 27, overtime loss, Oct 8 |
| 7:30 PM | Samuel Ersson | Watchprojected | OTT | Projected | 0-1, .886 (39 of 44) | 31 of 35, loss, Oct 6 |
| 7:45 PM | Kevin Lankinen | Downgrade for Vancouver, in for Demko | VAN | Projected | 0-5, .745 (70 of 94) | 19 of 25, loss, Oct 11 |
| 7:45 PM | Ilya Sorokin | Upgrade for the Islanders | NYI | Confirmed | 2-2, .937 (104 of 111) | 21 of 25, loss, Oct 10 |
| 8:00 PM | Sergei Murashov | Upgrade for Pittsburgh | PIT | Confirmed | 0-1-1, .937 (74 of 79) | 43 of 45, overtime loss, Oct 9 |
| 8:00 PM | Spencer Knight | Hold | CHI | Likely | 1-3, .885 (116 of 131) | 34 of 39, loss, Oct 10 |
| 8:15 PM | Calvin Pickard | Watchfirst start of the season | MIN | Confirmed | no starts yet | none this season |
| 8:15 PM | Stuart Skinner | Upgrade for Winnipeg, in for Hellebuyck | WPG | Confirmed | 2-0-1, .920 (92 of 100) | 32 of 34, win, Oct 7 |
| 8:30 PM | Mackenzie Blackwood | Downgrade for Colorado | COL | Confirmed | 2-2, .867 (85 of 98) | 17 of 22, loss, Oct 10 |
| 8:30 PM | Jake Oettinger | Upgrade for Dallas | DAL | Confirmed | 2-1-1, .963 (78 of 81) | 19 of 20, overtime loss, Oct 10 |
| 8:45 PM | Adin Hill | Hold | VGK | Likely | 2-0, .886 (39 of 44) | 21 of 24, win, Oct 8 |
| 8:45 PM | Juuse Saros | Upgrade for Nashville | NSH | Likely | 2-1-1, .916 (120 of 131) | 32 of 34, win, Oct 8 |
| 9:00 PM | Anthony Stolarz | Hold | TOR | Confirmed | 2-0, .904 (47 of 52) | 21 of 25, win, Oct 6 |
| 9:00 PM | Karel Vejmelka | Hold | UTA | Likely | 3-1, .907 (97 of 107) | 23 of 24, win, Oct 10 |
| 9:45 PM | Dustin Wolf | Downgrade for Calgary | CGY | Likely | 0-3, .816 (71 of 87) | 24 of 28, loss, Oct 10 |
| 9:45 PM | Lukas Dostal | Hold | ANA | Confirmed | 3-1, .883 (83 of 94) | 15 of 16, win, Oct 9 |
| 10:30 PM | Devon Levi | Downgrade for Edmonton, 3-0 on goal support | EDM | Confirmed | 3-0, .863 (63 of 73) | 29 of 31, win, Oct 7 |
| 10:30 PM | Darcy Kuemper | Downgrade for Los Angeles | LAK | Confirmed | 0-2-1, .865 (77 of 89) | 30 of 32, overtime loss, Oct 10 |
| 11:00 PM | Jeremy Swayman | Upgrade for Boston | BOS | Projected | 4-1, .932 (124 of 133) | 14 of 15, win, Oct 10 |
| 11:00 PM | Yaroslav Askarov | Downgrade for San Jose | SJS | Confirmed | 2-2, .860 (92 of 107) | 17 of 20, loss, Oct 10 |
Four games tonight have a goalie gap wide enough to matter: Vancouver at the Islanders (Lankinen .745 against Sorokin .937), Colorado at Dallas (Blackwood .867 against Oettinger .963), Boston at San Jose (Jeremy Swayman .932 against Yaroslav Askarov .860, on a Boston pick the number already likes at 54%) and Calgary at Anaheim (Wolf .816).
The shots board
Shots are the model's best prop in hockey, because volume is sticky and the model counts it from each player's own logs. Every skater below projects to a 65% or better chance over 2.5 shots on our number. A caution in the model's own voice: these printed numbers run hot. The props on the NHL cards have hit 40 of 63 this season (63.5%) against printed figures mostly in the 70s and 80s. That is still a profitable rate at -120, but it is the realised rate to bet on, not the printed one.
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Puck drop (ET) | Projected shots | Our number at 2.5 | At 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | Targeteven at 3.5 | COL | at DAL | 8:30 PM | 4.4 | 88% | 66% |
| Kyle Connor | Targeteven at 3.5 | WPG | vs MIN | 8:15 PM | 4.3 | 87% | 64% |
| Tage Thompson | Target | BUF | at MTL | 6:30 PM | 4.1 | 84% | 60% |
| Brandon Hagel | Target | TBL | at NYR | 7:15 PM | 3.7 | 78% | 50% |
| Nick Schmaltz | Target | UTA | vs TOR | 9:00 PM | 3.6 | 76% | 47% |
| David Pastrnak | Target | BOS | at SJS | 11:00 PM | 3.5 | 75% | 45% |
| Matt Boldy | Target | MIN | at WPG | 8:15 PM | 3.5 | 75% | 45% |
| Auston Matthews | Target | TOR | at UTA | 9:00 PM | 3.4 | 72% | 42% |
| Bo Horvat | Lean | NYI | vs VAN | 7:45 PM | 3.3 | 70% | 39% |
| Leon Draisaitl | Lean | EDM | at LAK | 10:30 PM | 3.3 | 70% | 39% |
| Macklin Celebrini | Lean | SJS | vs BOS | 11:00 PM | 3.3 | 70% | 39% |
| Alex DeBrincat | Lean | DET | vs NJD | 6:00 PM | 3.2 | 68% | 36% |
| Jake DeBrusk | Lean | VAN | at NYI | 7:45 PM | 3.2 | 68% | 36% |
| Jack Hughes | Lean | NJD | at DET | 6:00 PM | 3.1 | 65% | 33% |
| Sebastian Aho | Lean | CAR | vs WSH | 6:45 PM | 3.1 | 65% | 33% |
The props card, five legs, chosen at the lines where each over clears 65%: Sebastian Aho over 1.5 shots (93%), Evan Bouchard over 1.5 (92%), Connor McDavid over 1.5 (87%), Kyle Connor over 2.5 (86%) and Nathan MacKinnon over 3.5 (66%). Three more angles from the same projections. Assists: McDavid projects for 1.5 against Los Angeles, which makes one assist a 78% proposition; Nikita Kucherov 1.3 against the Rangers (73%); Macklin Celebrini, Leon Draisaitl and Bouchard 1.1 each (67%). Saves, where the over is a play at the number shown or lower: Dylan Garand 27.3 projected (25.5), Jacob Fowler 25.4 (23.5), Ilya Sorokin 24.9 (22.5), Sergei Murashov 24.8 (22.5), Jake Oettinger 23.9 (21.5), Jeremy Swayman 21.7 (19.5).
Anytime goal
Our number is from each player's expected goals in this game; Fair is the price that number deserves; Take at is the worst price that still leaves an edge after a book's margin. The list is the model's, unedited. Two are marked Pass for a reason worth stating: Evan Bouchard's 0.81 expected goals on 3.0 projected shots is a 27% shooting rate, which a defenceman's hot start produces and a season does not, and Tim Stützle's 0.71 comes on only 1.9 projected shots. A word on the rest: this early in a season the goal numbers run hot against shot volume (most of the list implies a shooting rate above 20%), so read Fair as the top of the range. Kyle Connor, Nathan MacKinnon and Nick Schmaltz are the three whose goal numbers sit on the most shot volume.
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Expected goals | Projected shots | Our number | Fair | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Connor | Target | WPG | vs MIN | 0.88 | 4.3 | 58% | -141 | -125 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | Target | COL | at DAL | 0.84 | 4.4 | 57% | -131 | -117 |
| Evan Bouchard | Pass | EDM | at LAK | 0.81 | 3.0 | 56% | -125 | -112 |
| Nick Schmaltz | Target | UTA | vs TOR | 0.79 | 3.6 | 55% | -120 | -108 |
| Kirill Kaprizov | Lean | MIN | at WPG | 0.76 | 2.7 | 53% | -114 | -102 |
| Sebastian Aho | Lean | CAR | vs WSH | 0.75 | 3.1 | 53% | -112 | -101 |
| Tim Stützle | Pass | OTT | vs STL | 0.71 | 1.9 | 51% | -103 | +107 |
| Bo Horvat | Lean | NYI | vs VAN | 0.70 | 3.3 | 50.3% | -101 | +109 |
| Andrei Svechnikov | Lean | CAR | vs WSH | 0.70 | 2.9 | 50.3% | -101 | +109 |
| Vasily Podkolzin | Lean | EDM | at LAK | 0.69 | 2.7 | 49.8% | +101 | +111 |
| Tage Thompson | Lean | BUF | at MTL | 0.65 | 4.1 | 48% | +109 | +120 |
| Auston Matthews | Lean | TOR | at UTA | 0.63 | 3.4 | 47% | +114 | +125 |
Four tickets
The first three are the Model Card's own, built every night: the games as one ticket at the market's prices, the props at fair odds (props carry no market price in our data, so take each leg at -120 or better), and the best of both. The fourth is the two legs the model alone likes more than the price. Our probability is the product of the legs on our graded number; Fair is the price that deserves.
| Ticket | Call | Legs | Our probability | Fair price | What it pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The card, six legs | Pass | NYI -205, PIT -162, ANA -175, UTA -162, TBL -162, CAR -155 | 4.8% | +1972 | +1527 |
| The value pair | Lean | PIT -162, CAR -155 | 36% (39% on the model alone) | +178 | about +166 |
| The props card, five legs | Target at -120 or better | Aho o1.5, Bouchard o1.5, McDavid o1.5, Connor o2.5, MacKinnon o3.5 | 42% printed | +138 | the product of your five prices |
| Best of both | Lean | NYI, PIT, ANA, Aho o1.5, Bouchard o1.5, McDavid o1.5 | 17% printed | +482 | +408 at market and fair |
Read the first row the way it is written. Six legs at 59% to 64% multiply out to about one in twenty, and the book pays +1527 for a ticket our number says is worth +1972. The card plays it anyway, because its job is to log the most likely winners every night and grade them in public. Your job can be more selective than that. The value pair is the one ticket where the model alone beats the price on both legs. One construction rule we hold to: no leg sits on every ticket, and no game side goes on a props ticket.
Injuries that move the number
The model values every out skater by his own production and prices the loss above replacement, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points tonight.
| Game | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|
| CGY at ANA | ANA without Gauthier, Terry; CGY without Huberdeau | 2.3 pts against ANA |
| FLA at CBJ | FLA without Marchand, Barkov | 1.8 pts toward CBJ |
| EDM at LAK | EDM without Hyman, Savoie | 1.6 pts against EDM |
| BUF at MTL | MTL without Demidov, Matheson; BUF without Dahlin, Zucker | 1.2 pts toward MTL |
| PIT at CHI | CHI without Nazar | 1.2 pts toward PIT |
| STL at OTT | OTT without Sanderson, Eklund; STL without Mailloux, Tucker | 1.1 pts toward STL |
| SEA at PHI | PHI without Konecny, Ristolainen | 1.1 pts against PHI |
| COL at DAL | DAL without Duchene; COL without Makar | 0.8 pts against COL |
| NJD at DET | DET without Edvinsson, Kasper | 0.7 pts against DET |
| TOR at UTA | UTA without Carcone, Lamoureux; TOR without Joshua, Domi | 0.4 pts against UTA |
| MIN at WPG | WPG without Morrissey, Salomonsson; MIN without Faber, Foligno | 0.4 pts against WPG |
| VAN at NYI | NYI without Barzal; VAN without Chytil | 0.4 pts against NYI |
The goalies are not in this table on purpose: a confirmed starter is named in the table above, and an injured number one (Shesterkin, Demko, Hellebuyck, Gustavsson) is priced through the market line, not through this rule.
How last night landed
Monday's card was three legs, all of them between 51% and 54%, and it went 1-2: Buffalo beat Florida 5-3 (hit, -115), Ottawa won 4-1 in New Jersey (miss, -122) and Minnesota beat Vegas 4-2 (miss, -108). The props went 2-3 (Kirill Kaprizov over 1.5 shots hit with four, Jack Eichel over 1.5 hit with two; Tage Thompson over 3.5, Tim Stützle over 1.5 and Jack Hughes over 2.5 missed), and all three tickets missed. That is what the 50 to 55% band looks like on a bad night, and it is why tonight's card, six legs at 59% and up, reads differently.
| Night | Legs | Units | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 | 2-1 | +0.72 | +0.72 |
| Oct 1 | 3-1 | +0.53 | +1.26 |
| Oct 2 | 0-4 | -4.00 | -2.74 |
| Oct 3 | 4-0 | +1.73 | -1.01 |
| Oct 4 | 4-0 | +2.96 | +1.95 |
| Oct 5 | 3-1 | +0.93 | +2.88 |
| Oct 6 | 3-1 | +0.83 | +3.71 |
| Oct 7 | 2-1 | +0.36 | +4.07 |
| Oct 8 | 5-0 | +2.40 | +6.47 |
| Oct 9 | 2-2 | -0.40 | +6.07 |
| Oct 10 | 5-2 | +0.37 | +6.44 |
| Oct 11 | 2-1 | -0.18 | +6.26 |
| Oct 12 | 1-2 | -1.13 | +5.13 |
The record
| Measure | NHL, since Sep 29 |
|---|---|
| Graded picks | 54-35 (60.7%), Brier 0.232 |
| Picks at 65 to 70% | 5-1 (83%) |
| Picks at 60 to 65% | 10-4 (71%) |
| Picks at 55 to 60% | 18-9 (67%) |
| Picks at 50 to 55% | 21-21 (50%) |
| Cards | 13 nights, legs 36-16 (69%), +5.13 units flat, ROI 9.9% |
| Props on the cards | 40-23 (63.5%) |
| Card parlays | 3-10 |
The middle rows are the whole philosophy of this piece. The model is good at the games it is sure about and a coin flip at the ones it is not, and on a sixteen-game night it is sure about eight. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NHL accuracy page; the ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page. Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the card's locked price, and the ledgers are never added across leagues.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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