Yesterday's picks: how the model did (September 26)

Verdexed's graded line for Saturday, September 26, is zero picks, zero correct, zero incorrect. Major League Baseball played the second-to-last day of its regular season and was the only league on the board whose games belong on a model record. None of them produced a scored prediction here, because the model's per-game probabilities were not published. By this column's running count that is the fifty-first consecutive slate that opens with the same number. Saturday's picks column claimed no edge and stated no side, so nothing that happened on the field belongs to the model, in either direction.

The scorecard

Picks made: zero. Correct: zero. Incorrect: zero. Accuracy on the day is undefined, because the denominator is zero.

No accuracy percentage and no Brier score is cited for Saturday. A public search returns Verdexed's methodology page, which describes a point-in-time logistic regression blended with de-vigged market prices and passed through a calibration curve, with every prediction logged before first pitch and scored afterward on win accuracy and on Brier score, where lower is better. What search does not return is the dated ledger underneath that description, and the site itself is blocked from this publishing environment. The 65 percent and 70 percent confidence tiers went unpopulated for a fifty-first straight day, so whether high-confidence chalk held is a question Saturday cannot answer.

The hand-kept ledger of stated sides holds at 13-10 across 23 decisions, unchanged, because no side was stated.

Best call / worst miss

Nothing was picked, so the model has no sharpest call and no worst miss. What follows grades the column's own market read, which is a borrowed scoreboard rather than a record. Three Saturday games carried a quoted price. Those three favorites went 2-1.

**The one that landed biggest: Houston.** The column called Astros at Athletics the consequential game on the board and reported Houston between minus 174 and minus 185. Result at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento: **Astros 13, Athletics 2**. Jeremy Pena hit a two-run home run in the third and Hayden Wesneski worked scoreless innings. It was the largest quoted price on the slate and it returned the largest margin, which is the ordinary outcome that a favorite of that size is supposed to produce and does not always.

**The one that also held: Texas.** Quoted between minus 110 and minus 118 at Minnesota, a price the column read as the market having no strong opinion on a game with a division hanging off it. Result at Target Field, after a two-hour rain delay: **Rangers 6, Twins 2**. Danny Jansen and Jake Burger both homered off Bailey Ober. Houston and Texas therefore both won and both finished Saturday tied atop the American League West, with the loser of Sunday's Game 162 math missing the postseason entirely.

**The worst miss: Toronto.** Near minus 158 at home against Cincinnati near plus 134. Result at Rogers Centre: **Reds 5, Blue Jays 1**. Rhett Lowder shut down a Toronto club that used a bullpen day, and a Cincinnati team with nothing left to play for beat a favorite priced at better than three-in-five. That is the single largest price on the slate to fall, and it fell without much argument.

The two games the column listed without a price both produced lopsided results. **Rays 12, Phillies 1** at Citizens Bank Park extended Philadelphia's slide in the games it keeps failing to clinch in, and **Padres 10, Diamondbacks 7** at Petco Park secured San Diego the top National League wild card and a home series against the Cubs. Arizona went into Sunday still able to take the last spot from Philadelphia with a win paired with a Phillies loss.

What it means

Two of three quoted favorites winning is not the model's winning day, in the same way that one of four winning on Friday was not its losing day. Neither scoreboard is its own. The result is the zero, and it is the fifty-first of its kind.

The durable read has not moved. The hand-kept 13-10 across 23 stated sides remains the only graded figure this desk can point to, and at 23 decisions the gap between 13-10 and 10-13 is a few coin flips, which is reason to hold it loosely rather than quote it as a track record. Fifty-one consecutive slates without a graded pick is a publishing failure rather than a modeling result, and the window in which baseball could have fixed it closes with Sunday's Game 162. Saturday's 14 NHL games were preseason, with that league's regular season opening September 29, and the NBA was not in games, so neither is graded here. Football had no Saturday slate at all. What remains on the calendar is a weekly NFL board and two sports about to start, which removes the schedule as an explanation.

Responsible play

**This is a record of past model output, not betting advice.** Verdexed grades its model in public for transparency and entertainment. Past results do not predict future outcomes, nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no pick is ever a guarantee, even a strong model loses regularly.

**You must be of legal betting age in your jurisdiction** and located where sports wagering is legal to bet. Sports betting is not available everywhere; know and follow the laws where you are. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and never chase losses.

If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available. In the US, call or text **1-800-GAMBLER** (1-800-426-2537), or visit ncpgambling.org. Please play responsibly.