Mike Babcock's Oilers Take Shape Before Camp: What a New System Means for McDavid and Draisaitl

Edmonton's players spent Monday at Zach Hyman's annual charity golf tournament in Toronto talking about their new head coach, and the message was uniform. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have both publicly described Mike Babcock as a strong fit for the club, and Draisaitl acknowledged that the leadership group had a direct conversation with Babcock about the circumstances of his departure from Columbus three years ago.

Babcock was hired on June 23 after the NHL concluded there was no current basis to restrict his employment, replacing Kris Knoblauch following Edmonton's first-round elimination in the 2026 playoffs. D.J. Smith joined the staff as an associate coach. Babcock is the tenth coach Edmonton has hired in the past fifteen years and the sixth since McDavid was drafted first overall in 2015.

That churn is the context fantasy managers should hold onto. A new voice in Edmonton is not a novelty. What is different this time is that the roster around the stars changed substantially alongside the coach.

The roster Babcock inherits

Edmonton's summer was a genuine reconstruction rather than a tune-up. The most consequential change is in goal, where Frederik Andersen signed a one-year deal after helping Carolina win the Stanley Cup, and the club also acquired Devon Levi to reshape the crease. Goaltending has been the persistent variable in every Edmonton playoff run of the McDavid era, and the front office finally addressed it with an established starter.

On defense, the Oilers traded Darnell Nurse to San Jose for Shakir Mukhamadullin and signed Ryan Shea to a five-year deal reported at $4 million annually. Up front, the club let several pending unrestricted free agents walk rather than re-signing them, which leaves the depth thinner and concentrates more responsibility on the top six.

Projected lineups have McDavid centering a line with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman, with Draisaitl centering Vasily Podkolzin and Matthew Savoie on the second line. That structure keeps the two stars separated at even strength, which is the deployment that has historically maximized Edmonton's scoring depth.

What a Babcock system actually changes

Babcock's coaching identity has always been built on structure: defensive detail, disciplined neutral-zone play, and a preference for controlling risk over maximizing possession volume. Historically, his teams have generated fewer high-event games than the league average.

That is a meaningful fantasy consideration for a roster built on two of the highest-scoring players in hockey. A more conservative system typically reduces total shot volume and total goals in a team's games, which affects every skater's counting stats and, importantly, tends to help the goaltender's save percentage and goals-against average.

The offsetting factor is that no coach in the league is going to reduce the ice time of McDavid and Draisaitl. Babcock's history includes riding his best players heavily, and Edmonton's thinner forward depth after the summer's departures gives him every reason to continue that. The power play, which has been Edmonton's structural advantage for years, is unlikely to be redesigned in a way that reduces the stars' involvement.

Fantasy fallout

McDavid and Draisaitl should be drafted exactly where they always are, at the top of every board in every format. Their production is driven by talent and ice time, both of which are secure. A modest reduction in team pace is not enough to move either of them out of the first tier.

The real fantasy consequences land further down the roster. In a lower-event system with thinner forward depth, the gap between Edmonton's top six and its bottom six widens, which makes the club's third-line forwards effectively undraftable in standard leagues while strengthening the case for the top-line wingers. Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins benefit from riding with McDavid. Podkolzin and Savoie become interesting speculative adds if the Draisaitl pairing holds through camp.

The defense is the clearer signal. Evan Bouchard's power-play role is the single most valuable non-forward fantasy asset on this roster, and a structural coach who prioritizes special teams tends to concentrate power-play minutes rather than spread them. That is good news for Bouchard's assist totals.

Andersen is the pickup that matters most. A goaltender moving into a lower-event system behind a competent defense is the classic profile for a save-percentage and goals-against improvement, and his fantasy price will be set by his age and his one-year contract rather than by his situation. That is a market inefficiency.

The Verdexed model take

The Verdexed model projects Edmonton's team goals-for to decline modestly from recent seasons and its goals-against to decline more sharply, which nets out to a slightly better team by expected-goal differential and a meaningfully less entertaining one to watch. That combination has a specific betting implication: Edmonton unders in game totals should be live more often than the market will price early in the season, because books set opening totals off recent seasons and Edmonton has been one of the highest-scoring environments in hockey.

The model's read on Edmonton's Stanley Cup odds is roughly neutral. The goaltending upgrade is real and addresses the club's most persistent playoff failure, while the forward depth reduction and the coaching transition introduce offsetting risk. A club that changes coach, starting goaltender, and a top-four defenseman in the same summer carries more variance than its point total will suggest.

What to do in your league

Draft McDavid and Draisaitl without hesitation. Nothing here changes their tier.

Prioritize Bouchard over other offensive defensemen at similar cost, and target Andersen as a value goaltender in the middle rounds. Both benefit from the system change in ways the market has not priced.

Fade Edmonton's depth forwards entirely. A structural coach with thin forward depth produces a top-heavy scoring distribution, and the bottom six will not be fantasy-relevant.

What's next

Camp opens in September, and the first thing to watch is line construction, specifically whether Babcock keeps McDavid and Draisaitl apart at even strength or reunites them. Separated, the Oilers roll two scoring lines and the wingers on both carry fantasy value. Together, Edmonton becomes a one-line team with a devastating top unit and nothing behind it, which is a very different draft board.