Matt Duchene Is Out Until Mid-January After Core Surgery, and the Stars Need Scoring From Somewhere

Dallas Stars forward Matt Duchene had surgery Monday to repair a core injury and is expected to miss about three months, the team announced. General manager Jim Nill said Duchene is expected to be sidelined through mid-January. Duchene, who had been on long-term injured reserve since October 1, has not played this season.

The news lands on a struggling team. Dallas entered the week averaging 2.20 goals per game, 27th in the NHL. With Radek Faksa also out, the Stars' center depth is thin, and the scoring has to come from somewhere.

How it got here

Duchene dealt with a lower-body injury throughout training camp. Coach Glen Gulutzan said the team first believed it was something Duchene could play through without surgery, but it became a chronic issue the Stars did not want to keep pushing down the road. Surgery now gives him a chance to return healthy for the second half.

Duchene was productive last season, with 45 points (16 goals, 29 assists) in 57 games, and he arrived at camp in excellent shape according to the team. Losing him for half the season removes a proven middle-six center and power-play option.

Who is filling the gap

Arttu Hyry has been centering the third line in Duchene's absence, and the Stars recalled Colin Blackwell for depth. Gulutzan has also been shuffling his top six. Early-season lineups have looked like this:

Those combinations are from the Stars' projected lineup on October 10 and have changed from game to game. Gulutzan has said he will start with one set of lines and turn to the blender if things are not working, and with a 2.20 goals-per-game average, things are not working.

Fantasy fallout

Duchene was not a high-end fantasy asset, but his absence has value implications for others.

Wyatt Johnston and Roope Hintz: Already the top two centers, both are locked into big minutes and the top power-play unit. Duchene's absence removes any chance of their ice time being trimmed.

Sam Steel: Gulutzan has called Steel a utility knife and has used him on the top line with Johnston and Rantanen. Steel is a deep-league add while he holds that spot, because top-line minutes alongside Rantanen create points even for a depth forward.

Jason Robertson and Mikko Rantanen: No change in status. They are must-starts, and the slow team start is a buy-low window rather than a reason to worry.

Arttu Hyry: Not a fantasy option, but worth knowing as the Stars' current third-line center.

Duchene himself can be dropped in redraft leagues that do not have IR spots. In leagues with IR slots, he is a reasonable stash for the second half, but a veteran in his mid-30s coming off core surgery is not a guaranteed contributor on return.

The power play question

The Stars' first power-play unit has been Johnston, Hintz, Rantanen, Miro Heiskanen and Robertson. Duchene would have been the natural centerpiece of the second unit, and that unit now loses its most experienced playmaker. Expect Benn and Steel to see more second-unit time, with Gulutzan likely to lean harder on the top group in key situations.

For fantasy, that is good news for the five players on the top unit. More power-play time concentrated in fewer players means more points for each of them.

A familiar problem in Dallas

Dallas built its recent playoff runs on center depth: a top two of Johnston and Hintz plus veterans who could slide up the lineup when injuries hit. That depth is exactly what is being tested now. Duchene and Faksa are both out, and the Stars are relying on Hyry, Steel and a recalled Blackwell to fill roles that used to belong to established NHL centers.

The concern is not the top six, which remains one of the best in the league on paper. It is the matchup game. When opponents can load their top defensive pairings against Johnston and Hintz, Dallas needs a third line that can punish weaker matchups. Until Hyry's line proves it can do that, opponents can focus on the Stars' stars, and the 2.20 goals-per-game average suggests that is exactly what has been happening.

Betting angle

The scoring slump is the story for bettors. A team with Dallas' talent averaging 2.20 goals per game is a candidate for positive regression, but the Duchene and Faksa absences reduce the depth scoring that drives that regression. In the short term, Dallas team totals and game totals deserve a modest discount until the offense shows signs of life.

For Verdexed's model view on upcoming Stars games, see the daily NHL picks pages and game probabilities at NHL predictions.

What's next

Duchene's return target is mid-January, which would give him about half a season to rebuild his role. Before then, Dallas needs its top six to carry the offense. Watch Gulutzan's line combinations over the next week: if Steel keeps his top-line spot, he is a worthwhile pickup, and if Hyry's line starts producing, the Stars' depth problem may be smaller than it looks.