Jayden Daniels Will Practice in London but Marcus Mariota Is Still the Favorite to Face the Colts
By Verdexed NFL Desk
Jayden Daniels will travel with the Commanders to London and is expected to practice this week, the team said Monday, less than two weeks after dislocating his left elbow in Washington's Week 2 loss at Dallas. Whether he plays on Sunday against the Colts at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is a different question, and the answer for now leans toward no: Marcus Mariota remains the favorite to start unless Daniels takes most of the first-team reps this week.
That is a notable acceleration from where things stood a week ago, and it matters for fantasy managers who have been stashing Daniels and for bettors trying to price a 9:30 a.m. Eastern kickoff between two 1-2 teams.
Where the injury stands
Daniels dislocated his non-throwing elbow on Sept. 20. Dislocations of that type often carry a recovery window of several weeks, and a return to practice this quickly is a strong sign that the joint is stable and that the medical staff is comfortable with contact risk in a controlled setting.
Practicing is not the same as playing. Daniels will need to show he can protect himself as a runner, absorb contact on the elbow and take snaps from under center without discomfort. His rushing ability is a core part of Washington's offense, and a quarterback who has to limit his running is a much less dangerous player. The Commanders also have little reason to rush him: Mariota just led them to their first win.
Washington's other injury news is less positive. Tight end Chig Okonkwo is dealing with a hamstring issue and will travel, but his status is uncertain. Linebacker Leo Chenal had neck surgery on Monday after being carted off in Week 3, and linebacker Frankie Luvu is also listed out on the Verdexed injury feed.
Marcus Mariota's case
Mariota threw three touchdown passes in Washington's 33-31 upset of Seattle on Sunday, easily his best performance of the season. He runs a version of the offense that looks similar to what Daniels runs, with designed quarterback runs and play-action shots, and Sunday showed the rest of the offense can function with him under center.
If Mariota starts, he is a legitimate superflex play and a deep-league streaming option in one-quarterback formats. The model projects him for about 206 passing yards and 31 rushing yards, and his rushing floor gives him a stable baseline.
Fantasy fallout
Jayden Daniels: Do not start him this week unless he is confirmed as the starter before Sunday's early kickoff. The 9:30 a.m. Eastern start time means managers will have to decide before most other games begin, and a late scratch or a limited role would be costly. If you have him on your bench, keep him there. The practice news is a strong signal that his return is closer to a week or two away than a month.
Terry McLaurin: A steady WR2 or WR3 regardless of who is under center. The model projects him for 4.4 receptions and 58 receiving yards. His ceiling is higher with Daniels, but his floor is solid with Mariota.
Chig Okonkwo: Only a desperation tight end streamer while the hamstring issue lingers.
The Colts: Jonathan Taylor is the key fantasy piece on the other side. The model projects him for about 84 rushing yards, a strong RB1 number. Second-year tight end Tyler Warren is projected for five receptions and nearly 49 yards, making him a TE1 in a week with several injuries at the position. Daniel Jones is a matchup-dependent streamer at about 224 projected passing yards, and the Colts are without receiver Alec Pierce.
The betting angle
The Colts are about 3.5-point favorites with a total around 47.5. Indianapolis arrived at 1-2 after beating Houston 19-17 in Week 3, a win that looked more like survival than dominance. Washington arrived at 1-2 after the upset of Seattle.
If Daniels is announced as the starter, expect the line to move meaningfully toward Washington. That creates a timing question for bettors. Taking Washington now, before any Daniels news, captures the current number with a potential upside if he plays. The risk is that he does not, but with Mariota coming off a strong game, the downside is limited.
A 47.5 total is on the higher side for two offenses that have been inconsistent, and both teams are adjusting to travel and an early body-clock kickoff. The under deserves consideration, especially if Mariota starts and Washington leans on its run game.
The Verdexed model take
The model makes Indianapolis a 53% favorite against a market price of about 62%. That 10-point gap is one of the largest on the Week 4 board, and it points to Washington as the value side at +3.5.
The model already lists Daniels as out and Mariota as the starter, so its number does not depend on Daniels returning. That is the key point for bettors: the model sees value on the Commanders with Mariota under center. Any chance Daniels plays is additional upside on top of that.
The drivers for Indianapolis are point margin, offense and a small venue edge. The case against the Colts is head-to-head history. The model's read is that the market is overrating Indianapolis's close win over Houston and underrating Washington's performance against Seattle.
What's next
Watch Washington's practice reports in London, which will be released on a slightly different schedule because of the time difference. If Daniels is listed as a full participant by Thursday or Friday, the Commanders may give him the start. A limited designation would point to Mariota and a Week 5 return for Daniels.
For fantasy managers, the Daniels stash is looking better every day. For bettors, the model's lean on Washington holds regardless of the quarterback, and getting the number before the market reacts to any Daniels update is the preferred approach.