Colts at Steelers Preview: Jaylen Warren Carries Pittsburgh's Offense and Daniel Jones Has a Turnover Problem

The 2-2 Indianapolis Colts visit the 2-2 Pittsburgh Steelers at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, and the setup tilts toward the home team before a snap. Pittsburgh played on Thursday night in Week 4 and has had extra time to recover, while Indianapolis flew home from a London win over Washington with no bye. The Steelers are about a 2.5-point favorite with a total near 44.5, and the matchup's fantasy calls revolve around two running backs and one turnover-prone quarterback.

This is also the most balanced early-window game on the slate that has not drawn national attention, which makes it a useful spot for fantasy managers looking for volume and for bettors who want a game priced close to a field goal.

Where both teams stand

Pittsburgh is coming off a painful 27-24 loss in Cleveland on October 1. Aaron Rodgers rallied the Steelers to a tie on a late touchdown pass to Pat Freiermuth and a two-point conversion, but Andre Szmyt hit a career-long 56-yard field goal with 10 seconds left, and Rodgers was intercepted on the final play. Per box score summaries, Rodgers threw for nearly 300 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions while taking five sacks. Mike McCarthy's team opened the season with a 20-13 win over Atlanta.

Indianapolis earned its second win in London, beating the Commanders 30-13 after a slow start. Jonathan Taylor ran 20 times for 95 yards and two touchdowns, and Daniel Jones added a rushing score. Washington lost Marcus Mariota to a knee injury during the game, which let the Colts lean on the ground in the second half.

Injuries that shape the game

The biggest Steelers news is at receiver. Michael Pittman Jr., the former Colt, did not practice Thursday with a foot injury, and McCarthy said it will be a multiple-week absence, with an injured reserve move still possible. Rico Dowdle (toe) was limited Wednesday and Thursday after missing two games, and McCarthy has called his return up in the air. Cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey (wrist) and Jamel Dean (ankle) are the defensive concerns.

Indianapolis has its own problems. Starting center Tanor Bortolini (ankle) did not practice Wednesday and was seen in a walking boot, and edge rusher Arden Key (hamstring) is expected to miss time. Alec Pierce remains on injured reserve with a heel injury. Keenan Allen and Taylor were limited with rest designations, and Allen also has a groin issue after missing the London game. The good news for the Colts is tight end Will Mallory, who returned from IR and was a full participant Thursday.

Friday's final designations will settle Dowdle and Bortolini, and both matter.

The key matchups

Daniel Jones against T.J. Watt. ESPN noted that Jones is second in the league with seven turnovers, four interceptions and three fumbles, and five of those came in the last two games. A Colts offense potentially playing without its starting center against Watt is a dangerous combination. Pittsburgh's defense already turned a Watt interception into a touchdown in Week 1.

Taylor against a Steelers front built on pass rush. Taylor is the Colts' path to points, and the case for him is that Pittsburgh's aggressive front can be run on when it gets upfield. The case against is that the Steelers can pressure Jones without abandoning run fits. Either way, Taylor's volume should be steady.

Jaylen Warren against a soft run defense. Warren has handled 20 touches in each of the last two games with Dowdle out and scored at least 15 fantasy points in both, playing more than 90 percent of snaps. The Colts rank 30th in run stop win rate and have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game.

Rodgers working the middle of the field. With Pittman out, expect more short throws to backs and tight ends. Roman Wilson has given Rodgers a downfield option, including a 49-yard catch against Cleveland, and Freiermuth and Darnell Washington should see a bigger share in a game with a rainy forecast.

Fantasy fallout

Start Jaylen Warren as an RB1 if Dowdle is ruled out and as a strong RB2 even if Dowdle is active, since a returning player off a toe injury is unlikely to take a full share. This is the best rushing matchup Warren has had all season.

Start Jonathan Taylor as an RB1. His touchdown equity in a close game and the Colts' shaky passing outlook make him the safest Indianapolis play.

Tyler Warren remains a TE1 option. He caught all five targets for 41 yards in London in a game Indianapolis barely needed to pass, and he should see more volume in a tighter script. Mallory's return is a small dent in his snaps.

Bench Josh Downs in most leagues. He saw four targets in London, has not scored through four games, and the Steelers' pass rush suggests short, quick throws that do not favor big totals.

Freiermuth is a streaming tight end with Pittman out, and the Steelers D/ST is a solid streamer against a turnover-prone quarterback behind a possibly depleted line.

The Verdexed take

We lean Steelers. The rest advantage is real, the Colts have had a long trip home, and Jones' recent ball security is a problem against one of the league's best edge rushers. The line sits under a field goal, so any Pittsburgh win by three or more cashes the spread. On the total, the rainy forecast and two run-first game plans push us slightly toward the under, though a short field or two from turnovers could change that quickly.

The bigger edge is in fantasy, where Warren's workload against a weak run defense is the clearest start on either side. Verdexed's game-by-game probabilities are at /nfl/predictions, and the weekly picks piece is at /blog/nfl-week-5-picks-2026.

What's next

Watch Friday's injury report for Dowdle and Bortolini, then Sunday's inactives for Allen. If Bortolini sits, upgrade the Steelers D/ST and downgrade Jones. If Dowdle is out, Warren becomes a locked-in RB1.

Actionable takeaway: start Warren and Taylor, stream the Steelers defense, keep Downs on the bench, and lean Steelers on a number under three.