Bills at Rams: The Two Super Bowl Favorites Meet on Monday Night and Buffalo Is an Underdog for the First Time

The Buffalo Bills will be an underdog for the first time this season when they visit the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN, SoFi Stadium). The two teams sit atop the Super Bowl futures board heading into Week 5, and the market has Los Angeles favored by a short number with one of the highest totals of the week.

Both teams arrive with something to prove. Buffalo (3-1) lost for the first time on Sunday, falling 29-26 to New England as a 6.5-point favorite. The Rams (2-2) rallied from a 10-point halftime hole to beat the Eagles 24-20 in Philadelphia, scoring 14 points in the fourth quarter.

How They Got Here

Josh Allen's late interception decided the Patriots game. Trailing by three with under two minutes left, he spun away from a free rusher and threw into double coverage, where safety Craig Woodson picked it off. Allen finished with 253 passing yards, a touchdown pass and that interception on a 69.7 percent completion rate, and added a rushing touchdown on five carries. It was a rare quiet game by his standards.

The Rams' win was the opposite: ugly early, efficient late. Matthew Stafford threw two first-half interceptions that led to 10 Philadelphia points and finished 32 of 51 for 317 yards with no touchdown passes, but Los Angeles put together two long touchdown drives in the fourth quarter. Puka Nacua, playing for the first time since Week 1, caught nine passes for 125 yards and scored on a 2-yard run. Kyren Williams was the best offensive player on the field, with 80 rushing yards on 16 carries plus 10 catches for 67 yards.

This is also a reunion of sorts for the Rams' defensive identity. Aaron Donald came out of retirement in late August on a one-year deal after Los Angeles traded for Myles Garrett, but Garrett had arthroscopic knee surgery in mid-September and went on injured reserve. He is eligible to return in Week 6, so he will not play Monday.

The Injury Report That Shapes the Game

The Bills' secondary is the bigger worry. With Benford already inactive last week and Alford and defensive back Te'Cory Couch (hamstring) banged up, Buffalo could be thin at corner against Nacua and Davante Adams, who caught seven of 13 targets for 137 yards in Week 3. On the other side, the Rams' tight end room is depleted with Ferguson on IR and Colby Parkinson managing shoulder and knee issues.

Fantasy Fallout

The Rams' passing game is the headline. Nacua's return did not crowd out volume so much as concentrate it: Stafford threw 51 times against Philadelphia, and with the Rams' tight ends hurt, almost all of that volume runs through Nacua, Adams and Williams. Against a Bills secondary missing its top corner, both receivers are strong plays, and Williams' receiving role (10 catches last week) makes him one of the safest running back floors on the slate.

For Buffalo, Keon Coleman is the receiver to know. He caught six passes for 116 yards and the go-ahead touchdown against New England, including a deflection grab on third down and back-to-back catches for 58 yards on the scoring drive. Khalil Shakir led the team with seven catches on eight targets for 82 yards but also lost a fumble in the two-minute drill before halftime. If Moore is limited again, Coleman and Shakir absorb the targets, and Coleman's downfield role carries more upside in a projected shootout.

James Cook managed only 12 carries for 75 yards and a touchdown because Buffalo trailed for much of the game. A neutral or positive game script would push his touches back up, and his efficiency suggests he can punish a Rams front without Garrett. Allen remains a top quarterback play regardless of one quiet week; his rushing touchdown kept his fantasy day afloat, and a high total is the right environment for a bounce-back.

Verdexed Angle: What the Market Is Saying

The line opened with the Rams near a full field goal and has settled at 2.5, which reads as respect for Buffalo after one loss rather than a downgrade of Los Angeles. The total has bounced between the low and mid 50s across books, which makes this the clear marquee shootout of Week 5.

Our take: the market is pricing these teams almost evenly, with a standard home-field bump for the Rams. The clearest angle is the matchup between the Rams' receivers and Buffalo's banged-up secondary, which favors Nacua and Adams receiving props and a pass-heavy Rams script. The counterweight is Stafford's turnover issue (two interceptions last week) against a Bills defense that thrives on short fields. For fantasy, stack the Rams' passing game with a Buffalo bring-back like Coleman. For the full Verdexed board, see /nfl/predictions and our Week 5 page at /blog/nfl-week-5-picks-2026.

What to Watch Before Kickoff

Monday games give managers an extra day of information, so watch three items. First, Donald's practice participation; McVay has said he is hopeful, and a healthy Donald changes how much time Allen has against an interior that may be without Oliver on the other side. Second, Benford's status: if Buffalo's top corner returns, the Rams' passing props lose some shine. Third, Moore's shoulder, which decides whether Coleman stays a locked-in starter.

The stakes go beyond Week 5. The winner holds the top spot on the futures board for at least another week, and the Rams can bank a statement win before Garrett is eligible to return. Expect the total and the spread to stay sensitive to Wednesday through Saturday injury reports, so the best time to act on any position is after the final statuses are posted.