Al Horford Heads to the Bench as Steve Kerr Leans Toward a Small Warriors Starting Five

Al Horford is headed back to the bench. Steve Kerr said this week that he is leaning toward a starting five of Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Gui Santos, Yaxel Lendeborg and Draymond Green for the Warriors' season opener against the Lakers, with Green at center and Horford coming off the bench. Kerr added that Horford will most likely be a reserve during the regular season, according to multiple reports, and framed the decision around minutes: if Horford is going to average roughly 20 minutes a night, it is easier to get him there as a substitute.

That is a change from the plan Golden State showed early in camp, when Horford stepped into the starting lineup after Kristaps Porzingis was ruled out indefinitely. The Warriors previewed the new look in Tuesday's 101-89 preseason win over the Lakers in Las Vegas, when Santos started in Horford's place. Golden State opens the regular season Wednesday, Oct. 21, at Crypto.com Arena (7 p.m. PT, ESPN).

Why Kerr is going small

The reasoning is about managing a veteran rather than demoting one. Horford has not played back-to-backs in recent seasons, and the Warriors want to keep his average near 20 minutes. Starters log their minutes in long first-quarter and third-quarter stints, which makes a hard cap awkward. A reserve can be slotted into shorter, targeted windows. Golden State used the same approach last season, when Horford opened the year on the bench and did not make his first start until the 13th game, per NBC Sports Bay Area.

The roster context forces the issue. Porzingis remains out indefinitely with an undisclosed health issue and no timetable, and Jimmy Butler is still recovering from the torn right ACL he suffered on Jan. 19. Kerr has floated February as a rough guess for Butler's return, roughly a year after the injury, while ESPN's Anthony Slater has described January or February as an optimistic target. General manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. has said Butler will miss opening night and the early part of the season.

That leaves Kerr without either of the two veterans he expected to start alongside Curry and Green, and the small group is his answer: more shooting and switchability in the first unit, with Horford anchoring the second.

The projected rotation

Kerr described this as a lean rather than a final decision, and the Warriors do not have to submit a lineup until tipoff. But the preseason evidence points the same way. Lendeborg has been the standout of Golden State's exhibition schedule, with the San Francisco Chronicle and NBC Sports Bay Area both singling him out after the two Lakers games, and Santos has now started repeatedly in place of a traditional big.

Fantasy fallout

Yaxel Lendeborg: The biggest winner. We flagged him as a late-round reach when he started the preseason opener on Oct. 3, and the case has only gotten stronger. A rookie forward starting next to Curry, with Butler out until the new year, has a clear path to 28 or more minutes a night. His all-around production in rebounds, assists and blocks gives him a category-league floor. Move him into the late-middle rounds in standard leagues and treat him as a priority add anywhere he went undrafted.

Gui Santos: A deep-league starter with a short leash. Santos earns minutes on effort and versatility rather than usage, which makes him more useful in points leagues than in category formats. He is a streaming option in 14-team and deeper leagues, especially during weeks when Golden State plays four games.

Draymond Green: More center minutes mean more rebounds and more chances at blocks, on top of his assists and steals. Green has always been more valuable in category leagues than in points leagues, and a full-time center role nudges him up in both. He is a solid mid-to-late-round pick.

Al Horford: The role change hurts his fantasy value. A 20-minute reserve who sits out back-to-backs is a deep-league option and a matchup streamer, not a weekly starter. His appeal is threes and blocks from the center spot, which still play in deeper category leagues, but drop him out of standard-league draft consideration.

Stephen Curry and Brandin Podziemski: Both benefit from a lineup with four perimeter threats around them. Podziemski in particular gains as a secondary ball-handler in a group without a traditional big, and his rebounding from the guard spot remains a category-league edge.

Betting angle

Golden State's season win total sits at 40.5 at BetMGM, per Fantasy Alarm, a number that reflects skepticism after last season's 37-45 finish and Golden State's title odds drifting longer after LeBron James chose Philadelphia. The case for the over rests on health and on whether the small lineup can hold up defensively. Without a true rim protector in the first unit, Green has to absorb a heavy load, and that is a lot to ask over 82 games.

For the opener, the Warriors have won each of the last three season-opening meetings with the Lakers, and this is the fourth time in six years the teams have met on opening week. Both sides arrive short-handed in the frontcourt, so the matchup should reward pace and shooting. Bettors should watch whether Kerr confirms the small group before tipoff, since a late switch back to Horford would change the shape of the game.

Verdexed's full model card for every opening-week game lives at /nba/predictions.

What's next

Kerr's lineup will become official when the Warriors take the floor in Los Angeles on Oct. 21. The bigger checkpoints come later: any update on Porzingis, whose return would push Santos or Lendeborg back to the bench, and Butler's progress as he works toward an early-2027 return.

For fantasy managers drafting this weekend, the takeaway is to buy Lendeborg, hold Green, and downgrade Horford to a deep-league stream. The Warriors' small-ball experiment will run at least until one of their injured veterans comes back.