NFL Today's Best Bets (September 24): No Model Board for Falcons at Packers

The NFL's Week 3 opener sends Atlanta to Green Bay on Thursday, September 24, and the one number this column exists to publish is missing again. Verdexed's win probability, confidence tier, and edge against the market for Falcons at Packers were not retrievable at publication: verdexed.com is blocked from this publishing environment, and the prediction, edge, and accuracy pages did not surface through search. There is no biggest edge to name tonight, and no probability anywhere below belongs to Verdexed's model. What follows is a matchup and market read, published as model output and entertainment rather than betting advice, for readers of legal betting age located where sports wagering is legal. The market's own opinion is the only one available: Green Bay has been quoted between 6.5 and 7 points with a total of 44.5, and the more interesting question is whether that price has fully absorbed two Packers offensive line starters going out and a quarterback making his first start in almost a year.

How to read this

A normal edition of this column carries two numbers per game: Verdexed's model probability and the market's implied probability once the book's margin is stripped out, with the gap between them reported as the edge. Verdexed's published methodology describes a model that weighs sixteen or more features per game and simulates each matchup thousands of times, then blends its own probability with the de-vigged moneyline to produce the headline number, with a calibration curve fit on held-out games so that a stated 65 percent is meant to behave like a real 65 percent. Verdexed reports both win accuracy and Brier score, where lower is better, and publishes the running record. Those trailing figures were not retrievable at publication, so no hit rate is cited here and none should be inferred. Every price quoted below is a sportsbook number surfaced through search, and a price is a consensus opinion rather than a forecast. No edge is claimed today, and on the days one is, it is still not a guarantee.

The model's top edges today

None are claimed. Filling this section with an invented probability would defeat the purpose of having it. The single game below is described for its personnel and its price, nothing more.

Thursday night, market side only

**Falcons at Packers, 8:15 p.m. ET, Lambeau Field, on Prime Video.** Green Bay comes in at 1-1 and Atlanta at 0-2. The spread has moved between Packers 6.5 and Packers 7 across the books surfaced here, with the total at 44.5, so a bettor comparing shops would find a real difference in the hook.

**The quarterback change is confirmed, not projected.** Atlanta announced on Monday that Michael Penix Jr. will start, and he was a full participant in practice with no game status issued on the final injury report. This is his first start of 2026 after missing the opening two games while finishing his recovery from the ACL injury that ended his 2025 season. Tua Tagovailoa, who started Week 1 before an oblique injury, is reported to be healthy enough to dress as the backup. A quarterback change in the short turnaround before a Thursday game is exactly the kind of input a model built on team-level form handles worst, because two weeks of Atlanta offensive snaps were taken by someone else.

**Green Bay's offensive line is the other live variable.** Right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele is out for the season with a torn patellar tendon suffered on the third offensive snap of Sunday's overtime win at the Jets, and Anthony Belton has been named the replacement at right tackle. Left guard Aaron Banks is out with a toe injury, his second absence in three weeks, with Donovan Jennings and rookie Jager Burton the reported options. The Packers also ruled out wide receiver Jayden Reed with a neck injury and defensive lineman Warren Brinson. Defensive linemen Javon Hargrave, in the concussion protocol, and Anthony Campbell, with an ankle, are listed questionable, which is not the same as out and will not resolve until inactives.

**Atlanta's defense is short too.** Cornerback A.J. Terrell has been placed on injured reserve and edge rusher Samson Ebukam is ruled out with a hamstring, with cornerback Billy Bowman also carrying an Achilles designation. A secondary missing its best cover corner against a home offense, and a patched interior line protecting a quarterback in his first game back, are the two pressure points the price is trying to reconcile.

What could go wrong

The largest unknown is the one no market and no model prices well: how a quarterback moves in his first live start eleven months removed from a reconstructed knee. Penix could look like the player Atlanta drafted, or the timing could be a half beat off for a quarter, and neither outcome would be a surprise. The second unknown is the Green Bay line. Backup guards and a first-time starter at right tackle on a short week, with limited practice reps together, is the kind of unit that either holds up quietly or gives up a drive-killing pressure at the worst moment, and three days is not enough tape to know which. The two questionable Packers defensive linemen will be decided about ninety minutes before kickoff, and a concussion protocol in particular can resolve either way late. Late September weather at Lambeau lands on the total first. And the caveat at the top still governs the whole page: with Verdexed's numbers unreadable, there is no independent opinion here to set against the market's 6.5, only the market's 6.5.

Responsible play

**This is model output, not betting advice.** Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.

**You must be of legal betting age in your jurisdiction** and located where sports wagering is legal to bet. Sports betting is not available everywhere; know and follow the laws where you are. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and never chase losses.

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