MLB Today's Best Bets (September 25): No Model Board on the Final Friday

Major League Baseball opens the last weekend of the 2026 regular season on Friday, September 25, with three playoff questions still genuinely open and the one number this column exists to publish still missing. Verdexed's per-game win probabilities, confidence tiers, and edge figures were not retrievable at publication: verdexed.com is blocked from this publishing environment, and the prediction, edge board, and accuracy pages did not surface through search. There is no biggest edge to name today, and no probability below belongs to Verdexed's model. What follows is a matchup and market read, published as information and entertainment rather than betting advice, for readers of legal betting age located where sports wagering is legal. Four clubs (the White Sox, Cubs, Guardians, and Padres) were reported to have clinched postseason spots on Thursday, leaving the American League West, the second National League wild card, and several seeding questions to settle in three days.

How to read this

A normal edition of this column carries two numbers per game: Verdexed's model probability and the market's implied probability with the book's margin stripped out, reported as the gap between them. Verdexed's published methodology describes a logistic regression fit on thousands of past games, weighing recent form, team strength, home field, rest, and the starting pitcher and bullpen, then blended against the de-vigged moneyline. That same page is explicit that betting markets are efficient, that a large and consistent edge over a closing line is rare, and that a small honest edge beats a fabricated large one. Verdexed reports win accuracy and Brier score (lower is better) on a running public record, but those trailing figures were not retrievable today, so no hit rate is cited here and none should be inferred. Every price below is a sportsbook number surfaced through search, and a price is a consensus opinion rather than a forecast. No edge is claimed today, and on the days one is, it is still not a guarantee.

The model's top edges today

None are claimed. Filling this section with an invented probability would defeat the purpose of having the section. The games below are listed for their stakes, their pitching, and their prices, with every starter named as projected rather than confirmed. On the final weekend that caveat is heavier than usual: contenders protect arms, and eliminated clubs look at September call-ups.

Friday's board, market side only

**Cubs at Red Sox, 1:05 p.m. ET, Fenway Park.** The board's most consequential game, and its earliest. Clay Holmes, listed at 6-8 with a 3.25 ERA, is the projected Chicago starter against Alec Gamboa, listed at 1-0 with a 1.16 ERA in a short sample. Boston has been reported able to clinch the second American League wild card and the fifth seed with a win here, or with a White Sox loss to Colorado. Chicago's reported route to the second National League wild card involves winning more than once in this series, or pairing a win with a Philadelphia loss; the wording differed across sources, so no single scenario is asserted. The market is close: Chicago has been quoted from minus 116 to minus 125, Boston between minus 102 and plus 105.

**Rays at Phillies, 6:40 p.m. ET, Citizens Bank Park.** Cristopher Sanchez, listed at 18-6 with a 2.93 ERA, is the projected Philadelphia starter against Freddy Peralta, listed at 9-11 with a 4.56 ERA. Philadelphia is the largest favorite surfaced for the slate, quoted near minus 166 with Tampa Bay at plus 140. Tampa Bay has been reported to have locked the top American League seed already, which is the reason to read the lineup card before the price.

**Reds at Blue Jays, 7:07 p.m. ET, Rogers Centre.** Jose Soriano, listed at 12-8 with a 3.77 ERA, is the projected Toronto starter against Nick Lodolo, listed at 3-6 with a 5.04 ERA. Toronto has been quoted near minus 136, Cincinnati near plus 114.

**Rangers at Twins, 8:10 p.m. ET.** Close to a coin flip, Texas near minus 110 and Minnesota near minus 108, which is the market saying it has no opinion. Texas was reported at 79-80 after beating the Mets 3-1 on Thursday, a half game ahead of Houston, behind a Josh Jung two-run homer and a Corey Seager homer that ended an 0-for-15 stretch. Neither starter was confirmable at publication.

**Astros at Athletics, 9:40 p.m. ET, Sacramento.** Houston was reported at 78-80 and holds the head-to-head tiebreaker after winning nine of thirteen meetings, which is why the division futures market has been lopsided in its favor (Houston near minus 295, Texas near plus 240, quoted when four games remained). Neither starter was confirmable at publication.

**Rockies at White Sox and Guardians at Royals, both 7:40 p.m. ET.** Both had starters to be announced at publication. The Chicago game matters beyond its own result, because a White Sox loss is one of the reported triggers in Boston's clinch path.

What could go wrong

The largest unknown is the one at the top: with Verdexed's numbers unreadable, there is no independent opinion here to set against these prices. Below that, the usual final-weekend hazards apply and apply harder. Any projected starter above can be pulled after three innings by a manager whose postseason rotation matters more than Friday's box score, and four of the eight clubs listed had no confirmed starter at all. Clinched clubs have every reason to rest regulars, which is invisible in a moneyline posted the night before, and eliminated clubs will hand innings to arms with too little major league sample for any model to weigh. Records, clinch triggers, and tiebreakers above come from previews and wire copy rather than a verified standings feed, and they disagreed in places. Weather is live at every park and lands on totals before it lands on sides. The Houston futures price was quoted with four games left and will have moved.

Responsible play

**This is model output, not betting advice.** Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.

**You must be of legal betting age in your jurisdiction** and located where sports wagering is legal to bet. Sports betting is not available everywhere; know and follow the laws where you are. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and never chase losses.

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